城镇化、经济结构与地区经济增长——基于东北三省地级数据的面板门槛分析
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| Title | Based on the Panel Threshold Analysis of Prefecture-level City Data from Northeast China
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| 作者 | 李绍荣 祝永庆 |
| Author | Li Shaorong and Zhu Yongqing |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学经济学院；东北财经大学马克思主义学院 |
| Organization | Peking University; Dongbei University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | haoronglee@sina.com |
| 中文关键词 | 产业结构 所有制结构 经济增长 城镇化 面板门槛特征 |
| Key Words | Industrial Structure; Ownership Structure; Economic Growth; Urbanization; Panel Threshold Characteristic |
| 内容提要 | 本文抓住东北地区最突出的经济特征，从经济结构的视角考察了东北经济失速的根源，认为偏传统的产业结构和偏国有的所有制结构制约了东北经济增长。同时，本文抓住东北地区体制转型的背景，将内嵌于转型进程的城镇化纳入同一个分析框架，研究发现，在城镇化发展的不同阶段，经济结构对经济增长的影响不同，具有非线性特征。利用2003—2013年东北三省地级面板数据进行实证检验，结果表明，当城镇化水平越过门槛值后，东北地区经济结构对经济增长的制约会进一步凸显。在城镇化发展的必然趋势下，降低国有比重，尤其是国有投资比重，促进现代产业发展，尤其是第二产业发展，是当前促进东北地区经济增长的重要手段。 |
| Abstract | Based on the most prominent economic characteristic of Northeast China, this paper analyzes the causes of regional economic downturn from the perspective of economic structure. This paper finds that the traditional industrial structure and the high proportion of state-owned restrict regional economic growth. Meanwhile, based on the background of system transformation in Northeast China, this paper analyzes urbanization in the same research framework, finds that the effect of economic structure on economic growth has the nonlinear threshold characteristic which is influenced by urbanization. Using the prefecture-level city panel data (2003-2013) of three northeast provinces, empirical analyses show that when the urbanization rate is greater than the threshold value, the effects of industrial structure and ownership structure on economic growth will be worse. Under the inevitable development trend of urbanization, lowering the proportion of state-owned, especially lowering the proportion of state-owned investment, and speeding up the adjustment and upgrade of industrial structure, especially developing the second industry, are important to promote the economic growth in Northeast China. |
| 文章编号 | WP1170 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-03-24 |
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