迁入潜能与城市增长
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| Title | Immigration Potential and Urban Growth
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| 作者 | 苏红键 魏后凯 |
| Author | Su Hongjian and Wei Houkai |
| 作者单位 | 中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所；中国社会科学院农村发展研究所 |
| Organization | Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies，CASS；Rural Development Institute，CASS |
| 作者Email | suhongjian@outlook.com；wei_houkai@263.net |
| 中文关键词 | 迁入潜能 综合效用 城市增长 人口迁移 |
| Key Words | Immigration Potential; Comprehensive Utility; Urban Growth; Population Migration |
| 内容提要 | 在中国城镇化快速推进和城市快速发展过程中，“什么决定城市规模”比“城市规模决定什么”的问题更加重要。本文结合城市增长理论和人口迁移理论的观点，构建了迁入潜能指标，以此衡量本地区及其他地区人口向城市迁入的潜在供给水平，并结合综合效用指标，共同解释中国快速城镇化过程中的城市增长问题。研究结果发现：随着中国城市规模增长，城市规模体系不断优化，规模位序系数逐渐接近世界平均水平；迁入潜能指标能够很强地解释城市增长差异，对迁入潜能指标的分解发现基期城市规模比按距离加权的本地区和其他地区人口规模的贡献更大；收入水平和城市环境通过影响综合效用进而影响迁入意愿和城市增长，影响系数略低于迁入潜能；城市行政等级与沿海城市虚拟变量均与城市增长正相关。未来推进城镇化过程中，要加强对城市迁入潜能的考察，科学制定城市规划和城镇化战略，积极吸纳潜在迁入人口，同时避免盲目扩张。 |
| Abstract | In the process of China’s rapid urbanization and urban development, “what determines city size” is more important than “what influences of city size”. Integrating the theory of urban growth and population migration, this article constructs the index immigration potential to measure the potential urban population growth supplied by the city and the other region. Then this article studies China's urban growth in the process of rapid urbanization employing a model including the immigration potential and the comprehensive utility. The results show that with the growth of China city, city scale system continuous optimizing, and the rank-scale coefficient gradually close to the average level in the world. The immigration potential index can well explain the differences of the urban growth, and the decomposition of the gravity potential index show that the contribution of the city size in the base year to urban growth is greater than the size of the population in the city and the other region weighted by the distance. The income levels and the amenities can also contribute the city growth through influencing the city's comprehensive utility, but the influences are slightly lower than the immigration potential. The dummy variables the level of the city administrative and coastal cities can improve the city growth. In the future of China’s urbanization, we need to inspect the immigration potential, scientifically make the urban planning and urbanization strategy, and actively absorb the potential immigration, while avoiding blind expansion. |
| 文章编号 | WP1171 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-03-24 |
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