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股指期货的作用:推波助澜还是市场维稳?——来自高频数据的证据
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TitleStabilize or Destabilize the Stock Market by Introducing Stock Index Futures: Evidence from High Frequency Data  
作者高金窑 胡金焱  
AuthorGao Jinyao and Hu Jinyan  
作者单位山东大学经济学院 
OrganizationShandong University 
作者Emailgjysdu@126.com;hwx@sdu.edu.cn 
中文关键词股指期货 套利交易 套期保值 市场操纵 情绪传染 
Key WordsStock Index Futures; Arbitrage; Hedging; Market Manipulation; Sentiment Contagion 
内容提要对市场背后交易动机的分类与识别是理解期现货关系的关键。本文基于分笔、分方向的高频数据,识别并检验了四种可能会引发期现货关系的交易动机:套利交易、套期保值、市场操纵与情绪传染。以引入股指期货后沪深300指数的历史最高点为分界线,本文把样本划分为正常交易与异常波动两个时段。正常交易期间的实证结果表明,期现货市场之间存在买现货、卖期货的单向套利行为;期货通过套期保值功能分流市场卖压从而降低现货市场所受的冲击,但期货一旦贴水则会把卖压返回现货市场;融资融券的变化恰好与套利交易对资金和证券的需求方向相反,并且对股指期货具有替代功能。异常波动期间的实证结果表明,期现货市场之间存在把股票替换为期货的指数替代策略;除此机制,期现货市场之间再无其他显著的影响关系。此外,在所有样本时段,实证结果均不支持跨市场操纵与情绪传染的理论假设。 
AbstractThe classification and identification of trade motivations behind the markets is the key to understand the spot-future market relations. With high frequency data, our paper identifies and tests four kinds of trading strategies that may lead to spot-future market interactions, namely arbitrage, hedging, market manipulation and sentiment contagion. After a division of the full sample according to the climax of CSI 300 index since the introduction of stock index futures, we find a one-way arbitrage during the normal trading period, that is, to buy in the spot and sell in the futures. We also find a hedging effect of the stock index futures which can alleviate the selling shocks to the spot market, but the selling pressure may be transmitted to the spot market again as soon as the futures are sold at a discount. The amounts of financing and security lending don’t match the demand for funds and assets of arbitrage trading, but show a substitution effect to the stock index futures. During the stock market turmoil, we find no significant relations between the spot and future market except for the stock replacement strategy which replaces the stock positions with undervalued stock index futures. What’s more, we find no evidence supporting the hypothesis of cross-market manipulation and sentiment contagion. 
文章编号WP1176 
登载时间2017-04-07 
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