劳动供给变化如何影响我国宏观经济波动?----基于企业内生要素份额的动态视角 阅读全文
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Title | How Does Labor Supply Shock Affect Aggregate Fluctuations——An Endogenous Capital Share Perspective
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作者 | 刘建丰 许志伟 章上峰 潘英丽 |
Author | Jianfeng Liu, Zhiwei Xu, Shangfeng Zhang and Yingli Pan |
作者单位 | 上海交通大学;浙江工商大学 |
Organization | Shanghai Jiao Tong University;Zhejiang Gongshang University |
作者Email | jfliu76@sjtu.edu.cn;xuzhiwei@sjtu.edu.cn;zhshangfeng@163.com;panyl@sjtu.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 内生要素收入份额 劳动供给冲击 中国经济波动 |
Key Words | Endogenous Factor Share; Labor Supply Shock; China’s Business Cycles |
内容提要 | 劳动市场供给的变化是企业选择资本或劳动密集型生产技术的关键因素。本文将企业的要素收入份额最优选择引入标准经济周期模型,通过内生化生产函数结构参数来研究劳动供给变化如何影响中国宏观经济波动。基于贝叶斯方法,本文利用中国宏观数据对该模型进行结构估计。数值结果显示:(1)具有内生要素收入份额的模型能够更好地解释中国宏观数据;(2)劳动供给冲击是要素收入份额时变的主要驱动因素;(3)要素收入份额的内生选择机制放大了劳动供给下降对经济造成的不利影响,忽略该机制会很大程度上低估劳动供给变化对宏观经济的波动效应。本文的定量分析为劳动力市场结构转型下的供给侧改革提供了一个新视角。 |
Abstract | The fluctuation in labor supply is one of the most important considerations when the firms make their decisions of adopting production technology with different factor shares. This paper incorporates the endogenous factor share decision into an otherwise standard real business cycle (RBC) model. The model is estimated through the Bayesian method based on Chinese aggregate data. Our quantitative results show that: (1) the model outperforms the traditional RBC model in explaining China’s macroeconomic data; (2) the labor supply shock is the main driving force of the observed fluctuations in factor share; (3) the endogenous factor share decision amplifies the adverse impacts caused by a negative labor supply shock; therefore, ignoring this mechanism would underestimate the contribution of labor supply shocks to Chinese business cycles. |
文章编号 | WP1186 |
登载时间 | 2017-05-02 |
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