货币政策规则、政策空间与政策效果——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的对比研究 阅读全文
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Title | Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Space and Policy Effects
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作者 | 金春雨 张龙 郝照辉 |
Author | Jin Chunyu, Zhang Long and Hao Zhaohui |
作者单位 | 吉林大学商学院;西南财经大学金融学院 |
Organization | Jilin University;School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics |
作者Email | longzhang15@mails.jlu.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 货币政策规则 政策空间 福利损失 政策目标 |
Key Words | Monetary Policy Rules; Policy Space; Welfare Losses; Policy Target |
内容提要 | 货币政策的实施无非是为了促进资源的最优配置和实现预期的经济目标,然而不适当的货币政策规则会导致经济系统不存在唯一均衡并且无法达到政策效果。本文以三个被普遍研究的货币政策规则为分析对象,并基于基本的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,研究了不同货币政策规则的政策空间、福利损失以及政策目标的实现程度。研究发现:第一,并不存在一成不变的最优货币政策规则,最优的货币政策规则随着不同经济时期的目标及外部环境而变化;第二,货币供应量规则永远不是最优货币政策规则,它的货币政策空间为空集;第三,如果中央银行希望稳定宏观经济指标,并且货币政策偏好较小,则可以选择泰勒规则;第四,如果中央银行希望刺激经济发展,并且货币政策偏好较大,则前瞻性利率规则更适合。 |
Abstract | The implementation of monetary policy is no doubt aimed to promote the optimal allocation of resources and achieve the expected economic goal, however, inappropriate monetary policy rules will cause that there is no unique equilibrium in economic system and no realization of policy effects. In this paper, we took three monetary policy rules which are widely analyzed as the research object, and studied the policy space, the welfare losses, and the realization of policy effects of these different monetary policy rules based on the new Keynesian model. It is found that: (1) There is no constant optimal monetary policy rule, and it changed with the objective and the external environment of different economic times. (2) The Money-supply rule never will be the optimal monetary policy rule result from its’ empty policy space. (3) The Taylor rule will be the optimal monetary policy rule when the central bank hopes to stabilize the macroeconomic indicators and when the monetary policy preference is smaller. (4) The Forward-looking interest rate rule will be the optimal monetary policy rule when the central bank hopes to stimulate economic growth and when the monetary policy preference is bigger. |
文章编号 | WP1199 |
登载时间 | 2017-06-23 |
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