是什么因素主导了我国钢铁企业的产能过剩及所有制差异
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| Title | What Factors Lead to Chinese Overcapacity in Iron and Steel Industry and Differences in Ownership?
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| 作者 | 马红旗 黄桂田 王韧 |
| Author | Ma Hongqi, Huang Guitian and Wang Ren |
| 作者单位 | 中国农业大学经济管理学院；北京大学经济学院；重庆工商大学财政与金融学院 |
| Organization | China Agricultural University; Peking University; Industrial and Commercial University Of Chongqing |
| 作者Email | mahongqi@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 钢铁企业 产能过剩 产能利用率 周期性因素 非周期性因素 |
| Key Words | Iron and Steel Industry; Overcapacity ; Capacity Utilization; Periodic Factors; Nonperiodic Factors |
| 内容提要 | 本文基于1998-2007年中国工业企业数据库，采用似不相关和系统GMM估计方法，测算了我国钢铁企业的产能利用率，并对决定其变化特征及所有制差异的关键因素进行了甄别。研究发现：（1）我国钢铁企业的产能利用率并不完全是顺周期的，1998-2004年为顺周期，而在新一轮的经济扩张阶段（2005-2007）表现为逆周期。原因在于，我国钢企的产能利用率既存在受市场需求影响的周期性特征，又存在受金融支持、沉没成本、投资倾向、企业规模、就业弹性和政府补贴等影响的非周期性特征，且前者又显著地受到后者的制约和支配，这一效应在新一轮的经济扩张阶段尤为突出；（2）金融支持和沉没成本是抑制产能利用率提高的最为突出的因素，说明宽松的货币环境和资本密集的企业属性是我国钢铁企业一直以来产能过剩的根本。因此我国钢铁企业产能过剩的基本矛盾并非简单的市场供需矛盾，而是资源的市场配置和“非市场配置”之间的矛盾；（3）国有企业产能利用率明显低于非国有企业，主要源自金融支持、市场需求和沉没成本的所有制差异，三个因素对产能利用率所有制差异的贡献度依次为23.1%、13.7%和12.6%，可见“非周期性因素”仍然占据主导地位；（4）企业规模却在一定程度上显著地提高了我国钢铁企业的产能利用率，并缩小了国有与非国有企业间的差距。这说明，相对于大型企业而言，小型企业的投资决策具有更大的盲目性，通过兼并重组整合小型钢企抑或提高项目审批的规模门槛或许是治理钢企产能过剩的一个重要突破口。 |
| Abstract | ies, the capacity utilization in Chinese iron and steel industry is not totally pro-cycle, it present procyclicality at take-off stage and counter-cyclicality at prosperous stage. The reason is that the capacity utilization in Chinese iron and steel industry not only has the periodic features influenced by the market requirement, but also has the nonperiodic features influenced by finance support, sunk cost, investment propensity, enterprise-scale, elasticity of employment and government subsidy. Some nonperiodic factors significantly impact the market adjustment function of periodic factors, especially in prosperous stage;(2)Finance support and sunk cost are two significant factors in inhibiting the raise of capacity utilization, which shows that loose monetary environment and capital intensive enterprise property are the root cause of Chinese longtime overcapacity. Therefore, the basic contradiction of Chinese capacity utilization in iron and steel industry is not simply the contradiction between supply and demand of the market but the contradiction between the allocation of resource via the market and not through the market;(3)Enterprise-scale significantly raise capacity utilization in Chinese iron and steel industry to some extent. However, this effect dramatically weakened in prosperous stage(2005-2007) ,its inseparable from the gusher phenomenon of small iron and steel enterprise. This suggests that relative to the big enterprise, small enterprise is more blind in making investment decision. Merger and recombine small iron and steel enterprise or a higher threshold for approval of projects based on enterprise-scale may be a important breach in governing the overcapacity in iron and steel industry;(4)The capacity utilization in state-owned enterprise is significantly lower than non state-owned enterprise, which is mainly caused by the differences in ownerships of finance support, market requirement and sunk cost. The contributions from these three factors to the differences in ownerships are 23.1%,13.7% and 12.6%,thus the impact of nonperiodic factors is much higher than periodic factors. |
| 文章编号 | WP1249 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-12-22 |
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