代际流动性趋势及其分解：增长效应与排序效应
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| Title | Intergenerational Mobility and its Decomposition: Growth Effect and Structural Effect
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| 作者 | 李任玉 陈悉榕 甘犁 |
| Author | Li Renyu, Chen Xirong and Gan Li |
| 作者单位 | 深圳大学经济学院；美国德克萨斯农工大学；西南财经大学经济与管理研究院 |
| Organization | Shenzhen University; Texas A&M University;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | renyu_li@hotmail.com；cxr1989@gmail.com；gan@econmail.tamu.edu |
| 中文关键词 | 代际教育流动 流动性分解 增长效应 排序效应 |
| Key Words | Intergenerational Mobility; Decomposition; Growth Effect, Exchange Mobility |
| 内容提要 | 本文从增长效应和排序效应两个维度分析我国代际流动变化趋势背后的主要构成，探讨我国代际流动性趋势的形成要素。研究分别以中国家庭金融调查数据（CHFS，2013）和中国家户调查数据（CFPS，2012）两个相互独立的具有全国代表性的微观家庭调查数据库为数据基础，在采用多重估计方法对流动性趋势进行估计的基础上，引入流动性分解方法对代际流动性趋势的构成进行分解。估计结果显示，我国代际流动性呈现的“倒U型”趋势，在城镇人口和农村人口中都同时存在；约60年代前出生的子代，代际教育流动性呈现上升趋势，对于在60年代中期后出生的一代人，其代际教育流动性呈现下降趋势。对代际流动性趋势构成的分解结果显示我国的代际流动，主要来源于增长效应，即由社会阶层分布在时间维度上的变化所引起的流动，是社会总量发展的结果。增长效应的变化趋势是总体代际流动性变化趋势的主导因素；将增长效应从总体流动中剔除后，代际流动性的变化趋势变得较为平稳。 |
| Abstract | This paper explores the sources and determinants of intergenerational educational mobility for whom born between 1930 and 1990 in China. We decompose observed educational movement across generations into growth mobility, exchange mobility, and disperse mobility by employing data from the 2013 China Household Finance Survey and 2012 China Family Panel Servey. Results revealing intergenerational mobility trend were in reversed U-shape. Cohorts who experienced dramatic institutional changes before 1960s had relatively higher and increased mobility. Movement in education across generations for cohorts after the 1960s, however, has declined continuously. Growth mobility, namely growth in overall education level across generations is most important in explaining intergenerational educational movement in China. After eliminating the effect of growth, mobility change across time becomes smoothly. |
| 文章编号 | WP1268 |
| 登载时间 | 2018-03-06 |
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