劳动力年龄结构与服务业-工业相对结构变化
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| Title | Aging and U-shape of Service-Industry Relative Size
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| 作者 | 茅锐 徐建炜 邹静娴 |
| Author | Mao Rui,Xu Jianwei and Zou Jingxian |
| 作者单位 | 浙江大学公共管理学院;北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院;中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院 |
| Organization | Zhejiang University;Beijing Normal University;Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | rmao@zju.edu.cn；jwxu@bnu.edu.cn；zou_jingxian@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 劳动力 年龄结构 产业结构 就业份额 |
| Key Words | age structure of workers; employment ratio; structural change |
| 内容提要 | 本文研究劳动力年龄结构与服务业-工业相对结构间的联系。基于跨国面板数据，实证结果显示劳动力年龄结构越老龄化，服务业-工业就业份额之比越高。本文继而构建两部门世代交叠模型，揭示实证关系背后的理论机制。模型显示，劳动力年龄结构通过“规模效应”和“构成效应”共同影响产业结构。前者在需求面和供给-需求交互面上产生作用，后者在供给面上产生作用。由于规模效应占主导地位，老龄化将导致服务业-工业相对结构上升。本文利用微观数据校准模型主要参数，基于我国劳动力年龄结构的历史数据对服务业-工业相对结构进行数值模拟，发现模拟结果能较好拟合产业结构的真实演变历史。本文最后基于人口预测数据，利用理论模型对本世纪中叶前我国服务业-工业相对结构和两部门绝对就业份额的发展趋势做出预测。 |
| Abstract | This paper studies the relationship between age structure of labor and relative size of service-industry structure. Based on the cross-country panel data, empirical evidences suggest the relative size of services to industry increases when the age structure of workers grows old. The overlapping generation model developed in this paper discloses the two mechanisms behind, “size effect” and “composition effect”, that the former works through demand and supply-demand side, while the latter functions through supply side. In equilibrium, the “size effect” dominates, thus making aging leads to the rise of service relative to industry sector. In this paper, we do the calibration based on China’s micro data and it fits the historical data well. Lastly, based on the forecasts on population, we apply our theoretical framework to predict China’s sectoral employment shares. |
| 文章编号 | WP1341 |
| 登载时间 | 2019-03-05 |
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