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劳动力流失、资本替代与农业生产
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TitleLabor’s loss, Capital-labor Substitution and Agricultural Production  
作者许庆 赵思诚 刘进  
AuthorXu Qing, Zhao Sicheng and Liu Jin  
作者单位上海财经大学财经研究所 
OrganizationInstitute of Finance and Economics and Agriculture, Countryside & Farmer Research Institute,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 
作者Emailxu.qing@mail.shufe.edu.cn;501506844@qq.com;rainye615@163.com 
中文关键词劳动力流失 要素替代 农户兼业 非农收入 农业生产 
Key WordsLabor’s loss; Factor substitution; Part-time farmer; Non-farm income; Agricultural production 
内容提要改革开放以来,由于城乡工资差异和户籍制度的存在,为了收入最大化,绝大多数农户不得不采取兼业经营方式,农村劳动力大量向非农部门转移,农业劳动力出现流失,影响到农业生产。本文构建了一个农户兼业前提下收入最大化的理论模型,从微观层面上阐述了非农收入对劳均产出的影响机制并提出相关假说,进而使用“中国家庭追踪调查项目”(CFPS)2012年数据对相关假说进行了实证检验。结果显示,虽然劳动力的投入下降,但资本对其进行了替代,这一要素结构的变化显著提高了劳均产出,有助于保障农业生产。本文为宏观层面上解决“谁来种地”的问题提供了思路。 
AbstractWith Chinese industrialization and urbanization, especially since the reform and opening up, continuous out-migration of rural laborers has always been a focus of debates regarding its potential positive impact on farmers’income growth. However, migration often remains temporary, circular and/or flexible due to institutional arrangements related to Chinese residential registration system (hukou), and in order to maximize farmer family income, most rural residents had to make part-time farming based on domestic division of labor which resulted in the agricultural labor’s loss.Worries about who would cultivate the land in the future and agricultural development especially food security remain by labor’s loss. To date, considerable attention had been paid to part-time farming potential impact on agricultural production, but these conclusions were inconsistent.In nature, if we reviewed and summarized tremendous change of Chinese agricultural development stages, it could assert that the process of capital-labor substitution would be the main feature in agricultural production, and it would appeare to accelerate. However,what’s worth noting that the particularity of the factor substitution in Chinese agricultual development resulted from the residential registration system, it was that in order to maximine family income and ensure their food supply, farmers had to make part-time farming so that the agricultural factor substitution was passive. Unfortunately, there is no evidence here, except for the paper. Firstly, based on part-time farming, this paper not only constructed a micro theoretical model about maximizing income,but also expounded the capital-labor substitution impact on agricultural productivity with non-farm income,and presented the following hypotheses: (1) non-farm income was the transaction cost of farmers’ agricultural production activities, and non-farm income growth would have a nagative impact on agricultural labor and accerate capital-labor substitution. (2) non-agricultural income the factor substitution resulted in non-farm income could improve agricultural labor productivity. Secondly, using the data of China family survey (CFPS) in 2012, the results showed that although agricultural labor input would decrease, the capital investment would increase by non-farm income growth,which would improve the ratio of capital and labor to incease singinficantly agricultural labor productivity. The paper makes two main contributions. At first, Based on labor’s loss by part-time farming, it investigated structural change of agricultural inputs impact on agricultural production by using the induced technological change theory, and providied solutions about who would cultivate the land in the future. Secondly, a micro theoretical model about maximizing income would be builded under part-time-farm circumstance, expounded non-farm income impact on per labor productivity and put forward these hypotheses, so as to not only enrich the research bewteen part-time farming and factor substitution in agritulture, but also to be important to propose the reform of agricultural development.  
文章编号WP1380 
登载时间2019-06-13 
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