生产网络结构、宏观经济波动与供给侧改革
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| Title | Production Network Structure, Macroeconomic Fluctuation and Supply-side Reform
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| 作者 | 曹苍剑 |
| Author | Cao Cangjian |
| 作者单位 | 清华大学经济管理学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University |
| 作者Email | cjprint@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 宏观经济波动 生产网络 投入产出 中心度 供给侧改革 |
| Key Words | Macroeconomic Fluctuation; Production Network; Input-Output; Centrality; Supply-side Reform |
| 内容提要 | 当前关于宏观经济波动的研究大多抽象了经济体内部各行业的异质性和相互作用关系，从而忽略了经济系统内在结构特征的影响机制。本文通过理论分析与实证检验相结合的方式，探讨了生产网络的网络结构对于宏观经济总体波动性的内在驱动机制。本文发现，宏观经济总量受某一行业技术性冲击影响的事后（ex post）波动幅度取决于该行业在生产网络中的Bonacich中心度；而宏观经济总量的事前（ex ante）预期波动幅度与生产网络中各行业中心度的方差，即各行业在生产网络中所处位置的不对称性和不平衡度，呈正相关关系。本文的研究结论能够为政策当局的供给侧结构性改革和产业政策的制定提供一些启示。 |
| Abstract | Most studies on macroeconomic fluctuations have ignored the influence of the structural characteristics of economic system, in which many heterogeneous sectors are interconnected with each other. In this study we explore how macroeconomic fluctuation is driven by production network structure and idiosyncratic shocks on sectors. We find that the ex post aggregate fluctuation caused by idiosyncratic shock is positively correlated with the Bonacich centrality of the shock-hitted sector in the production network, while the ex ante expected aggregate fluctuation is positively correlated with the variance of all sectors’ Bonacich centrality, which measures the balance and symmetry of the entire production network. Based on the theoretic and empirical analysis, we come up with some policy implications on China’s supply-side reform and industrial policy design. |
| 文章编号 | WP1397 |
| 登载时间 | 2019-07-26 |
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