人口老龄化、城市化与中国经济增长：理论与实证
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| Title | Population aging、Urbanization and China's Economic Growth: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
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| 作者 | 汪伟 刘玉飞 |
| Author | Wang Wei and Liu Yufei |
| 作者单位 | 上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院；上海商学院商务经济学院 |
| Organization | Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; Shanghai Business School |
| 作者Email | wangwei2@mail.shufe.edu.cn；liuyufeiyaojiayou@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 城市化 经济增长 人口老龄化 储蓄 教育投资 |
| Key Words | urbanization; economic growth; population aging; savings; education investment |
| 内容提要 | 中国的城市化发展战略正遭遇人口老龄化的挑战，而以往关于城市化的经济增长效应的国内外研究均忽视了人口老龄化的作用。基于此，本文构建了一个纳入老龄化因素的城乡二元经济三期世代交叠模型，首次探讨了老龄化影响城市化与经济增长的机制。本文的理论研究发现：（1）人口老龄化会降低城市与农村的教育投资率、降低农村的储蓄率，但同时会提高城市的储蓄率，总体来看，人口老龄化对整个二元经济增长的作用是模糊的；（2）城市化有助于提高一个国家的经济增长率并增进国民福利，但由于人口老龄化会导致农村人力资本的积累速度下降，降低迁移率，从而会减缓城市化的进程并弱化城市化的经济增长效应。此外，本文还运用中国的省级面板数据验证了上述理论分析的结论。本文的研究有助于从人口转变的视角来理解中国的城市化和经济增长动力。 |
| Abstract | Nowadays, China's Urbanization Development Strategy is encountered the challenge of population ageing, whereas previous literatures about the relationship between economic growth and urbanization tend to ignore the effects of population aging. Based on this, this paper sets up a three-period overlapping generation model in an urban and rural dual economy to discuss the influence mechanisms of population ageing on urbanization and economic growth. The theory analysis implies that: (1) population ageing will reduce both the urban and rural education investment, which tends to reduce economic growth, but at the same time it will improve the urban household savings rate and reduce the rural household savings rate. In general, the role of population aging on the dual economic growth is ambiguous, depends on the parameters setting of the model; (2) urbanization helps to improve the country's economic growth and enhance the national welfare. The population ageing has a negative effect on rural human capital investment, and it will slow down the process of urbanization and weaken the economic growth effect of urbanization. We also conduct an empirical study by drawing on panel data from China's 29 provinces for the period 1995-2012.The findings support our theory predictions. |
| 文章编号 | WP1418 |
| 登载时间 | 2019-09-26 |
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