中国企业为何偏爱出口平台型对外直接投资
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| Title | Uncertainty of Market and Outward Direct Foreign Investment—Theory and Evidence from Chinese Firms
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| 作者 | 蒋冠宏 |
| Author | Jiang Guanhong |
| 作者单位 | 厦门大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Xiamen University |
| 作者Email | jiangguanhong2009@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 对外直接投资；出口平台型OFDI；生产型OFDI；市场不确定性 |
| Key Words | Outward Direct Foreign Investment; Exporting OFDI; Manufacturing OFDI; Uncertainty |
| 内容提要 | 中国制造业对外直接投资的60%以上都选择出口平台型投资。该比重不仅远高于发达国家，也高于其他新兴市场和发展中国家。为何中国企业如此偏好出口平台型投资？我们构建理论模型分析东道国市场不确定性对企业OFDI方式的影响。研究发现企业倾向于在市场不确定性较大（小）的东道国进行固定成本较低（高）的出口平台型OFDI（生产型OFDI）。只有预期市场不确定性下降时，企业才从出口平台型转换为生产型OFDI，否则继续原有模式或退出该市场。而且，东道国市场不确性越大，企业从出口平台型转换为生产型OFDI的时间越长。以此为基础本文利用2003-2014年中国企业进行了实证检验。我们利用引力模型变量和国家制度风险全面衡量了东道国市场不确定性。实证检验结论与理论预测一致。同时本文以签订双边投资协定（BIT）为“拟自然实验”对理论预测进一步考察。研究发现由于BIT降低了中国企业面临的市场不确定性，激励更多企业在东道国进行生产型OFDI，也缩短了OFDI模式的转换时间。此外考虑到制度差异也会增加市场不确定性。研究发现制度差异不仅迫使企业以出口平台型OFDI进入市场，也延长了OFDI模式的转换时间。因此本文从市场不确定性视角揭示了中国企业为何偏好出口平台型OFDI的理论机制。 |
| Abstract | The paper investigates impact of uncertainty of market in host country on the mode of OFDI. We develop a simple theory model in order to examine the impact of uncertainty in host country on the mode of entry of foreign firms. We show that in more uncertain destinations most firms serve the market via exporting OFDI. Meanwhile in more uncertain markets firms experience longer exporting OFDI before building a manufacture in there. We take the prediction of model to the data using Chinese firms. We find that the theory consists with empirical evidence. The paper also treats bilateral investment treaty (BIT) as quasi natural experiment. Since the BIT decrease uncertainty, most firms serve the market via manufacturing OFDI after signing BIT. It also shorts experience of exporting OFDI before entry with manufacturing OFDI. Due to difference of institution also creates uncertain, we find that difference of institution brings the same effects as BIT. |
| 文章编号 | WP1419 |
| 登载时间 | 2019-09-26 |
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