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经济增长、房价上涨与中国出生人口性别比失衡
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TitleEconomic Growth, Housing Prices and the Imbalance of Sex Ratio at Birth in China  
作者苏冬蔚 廖佳  
AuthorSu Dongwei and Liao Jia  
作者单位暨南大学经济学院 
OrganizationJinan University 
作者Emailtdsu@jnu.edu.cn;892211504@qq.com 
中文关键词出生人口性别比 房价 经济增长 儒家文化 家庭生育行为 
Key WordsSex ratio at birth; Housing price; Economic growth; Confucianism; Family fertility behavior 
内容提要出生人口性别比失衡是挑战我国经济和社会可持续发展的重大问题之一。已有文献主要从经济发展水平、城镇化进程以及社会保障体系等方面加以理论探讨,尚未进行深入的实证分析。本文首次将全国人口普查及抽样调查数据与2000至2015年间286个地级以上城市的经济数据相结合,研究经济增长与房价上涨对出生人口性别比的影响,发现高房价有助于降低城市出生人口性别比,而经济增长则没有显著影响;在儒家伦理和传统生育文化影响力小的城市,房价上涨对出生人口性别比失衡具有显著的抑制作用;2000年城镇住房制度改革初期,在性别干预程度高的地区,高房价有助于降低出生人口性别比。结果表明,房价上涨是近十年来我国出生人口性别比持续下降的主要经济成因,经济增长、女性社会地位、城镇化进程、基本养老保险覆盖率以及地区生育政策等因素均难以解释出生人口性别比的下降趋势。因此,国家只有继续完善房地产市场平稳健康发展的长效机制、加强“男女平等”宣传教育并普及新型生育文化,才能不断缓解家庭生育行为中的性别失衡问题。 
AbstractIn China, the male-to-female sex ratio at birth increases continuously from 108.47 in 1982 to the peak value of 121.18 in 2004. Since 2008, it dramatically and steadily declined. Extant research on the economic and social causes behind the imbalance of sex ratio at birth in China has focused on the level of economic growth, the speed of urbanization and the development of social security and social care systems. However, existing research mostly rely on theoretical analysis and provides no empirical evidence to support their claims. Using data from the Fifth and Sixth Population Censuses in 2000 and 2010 as well as National 1% Population Survey in 2005 and 2015, this paper is one of the first to combine population and macroeconomic data for 286 cities during 2000 and 2015 to empirically analyze whether economic growth and housing prices can explain the pattern in sex ratio at birth as observed in the data. The results obtained from this study can be summarized as follows: First, high level of housing prices help to reduce sex ratio at birth, but economic growth has no significant effect after using instrumental variable estimation. Second, in cities where Confucianism influence is relatively weak, increases in housing prices lead to reductions in sex ratio at birth, while in cities where Confucianism influence is strong, housing prices and economic growth have no effect. Third, during the early period of Housing Reform for Cities and Townships in 2000, high housing prices help to reduce sex ratio at birth in places where birth control and interventions are more prevalent, while housing prices have no impact in other areas. Fourth, the social status of women, the speed of urbanization, the development of social security and social care systems, and the multiplicity of birth control policies across different regions cannot explain the decline in sex ratio at birth during the past 10 years. The policy implications of this study are two folds. First, traditional marriage customs and practices for young men and women require that the male party or his parents to assume the responsibility of house purchase. High housing prices have inevitably increased the cost of raising boys. As a result, the social perception of having male or female descendants has changed dramatically from “boy preference” to “boy or girl is the same”, subsequently leading to sustained decline in sex ratio at birth. The new development in marriage and fertility culture during the past decade calls for the government to maintain steady development of the housing market and avoid large swings in housing prices, so that the imbalance of sex ratio at birth can be ameliorated continuously. Second, because “boy preference” remains ingrained among families in places where Confucianism ideology and influences are strong, no economic or social factors, including housing prices, economic growth, urbanization and social security system can help reduce sex ratio at birth. Consequently, the government should increase its effort to promote new fertility culture in the above areas, such as showing the merit of girls to all families, so that “boy or girl is the same” and “girls are equally good descendants” can become dominant ideology. In addition, the government should encourage men and women to assume equal responsibility in housing purchases, leading to a more fair and friendly cultural environment for marriage and fertility. With implementation of good policies, China will eventually attain the goal of natural balance in sex ratio at birth.  
文章编号WP1444 
登载时间2019-12-04 
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