去预算软约束、房地产税与地方政府债务风险管控——一个“金融-财政-货币”综合平衡的DSGE分析
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| Title | De-soft-budget-constraining, Real Estate Tax and Local Government Debt Risk Management
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| 作者 | 石晓军 付莉 王訸 |
| Author | Shi Xiaojun,Fu Li and Wang He |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学财政金融学院 |
| Organization | Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | sxjstein@126.com；fulifinance@ruc.edu.cn；wanghe1219@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 预算软约束 房地产税 地方政府债务 DSGE模型 |
| Key Words | soft budget constrains; real estate tax; local government debts; DSGE model |
| 内容提要 | 本文扩展了新近涌现的关于地方政府债务的DSGE模型，兼顾经济增长和风险可控双目标，在经典预算软约束模型的基础上，建立了包含家庭部门、一般生产部门、房地产生产部门、商业银行、地方政府以及中央银行六部门组成的一般均衡模型。通过引入房地产部门和房地产税并刻画中国房地产调控的现实，以及中央银行部门及货币政策，定量分析管控地方政府债务风险的“金融-财政-货币”政策组合。结果表明，当政策当局关注增长与风险双目标时，预算硬约束、逆周期调节地方政府债务规模的货币政策以及征收房地产税的政策组合使得社会福利损失最小。同时也发现，征收房地产税具有双面效应，一方面会导致产出的波动性变大，另一方面有助于地方债务风险的有效管控。 |
| Abstract | This paper is made to extend the DSGE model by including in the financial tools, monetary policies and fiscal policies. Characterizing the de-soft-budget-constraint, real estate tax, we established a general equilibrium model consisting of six departments as households, entrepreneurs, real estate producers, commercial banks, local governments and central bank. This model take both economic growth and risk control into account, and try to analysis the risk suppression effect of the “financial-fiscal-monetary” policy portfolio. The results show that: the portfolio of de-soft-budget-constraint, monetary policy and real estate tax could help government reduce welfare losses if both economic growth and risk control are the goals. The real estate tax is like a coin that has two sides, it can help governments control debt risks effectively while it may increase output fluctuations. |
| 文章编号 | WP1457 |
| 登载时间 | 2020-01-03 |
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