Abstrat:By establishing an analytic framework including main facts and factors, the author made a forecast on the trends of export growth and goods structure upgrading. Firstly, the author identified 8 critical factors affecting the structure changes of export goods, specified variables, established an analytic model and tested the model with historical data. Secondly, the author screened out some types of goods with higher technologic and value-added content and greater export potential, with the factors got from the model, analyzed and forecasted the growth trend. The main conclusion is that comparative advantage, domestic industrial foundation and domestic market structure, as well as extent participating into global labor division are the main three types of factors determining the trade growth and structure. China has all the three favorable factors. In the near future, export competitiveness of labor-intensive products will be maintained, and the export of those goods with comparatively higher technologic and value-added content will grow rapidly, which will continuously promote the upgrading of export goods structure. The research shows that there are objective rules in the export goods structure upgrading, and export promoting policy can get better effects only when complying with market rules.

Abstrat:This thesis first displays the stylized facts of Chinas macroeconomic fluctuations: its consumption is highly correlated with GDP, investment fluctuates more than output, and net export is countercyclical. It constructs 3 RBC models of a closed economy, a small open economy and a small open economy with government sector. Our simulation results from these models show that the first model of closed economy explains about 48.26%, 24.39% and 98.50% of real fluctuations in output, consumption and investment respectively; results from a small open economy are 69.51%, 68.70%, 98.50% with a trade-balance-to-GDP ratio of 97.42%; the best results come from a small open economy with government purchase, they are 83.91%、81.95%、99.63% with a trade-balance-to-GDP ratio of 209.68%.Overall, open-economy model performs better than closed ones and an open economy with government purchase shock performs better than an open economy without it. The introduction of government purchase shock into the model greatly improves simulation results.

Abstrat:After commenting on the rationale and feasibility of current RMB equilibrium-exchange-rate research, the paper concludes that current approaches fail in calculating the desirable appreciation scale of RMB. In view of this, we design a new algorithm to calculate exchange-rate misalignment. We aim at utilizing efficiently the information embodied in forward exchange rate market by applying rational expectation technique under the framework of equilibrium-exchange-rate reverting mechanism. A new pricing formula is then derived and empirically, by constructing the external real effective exchange rate index and using RMB NDF data, we show that RMB should be appreciated by 4.39% by the end of June in 2005.

Abstrat:This paper has established a model of financial development based on the theory of division of labor and estimated a cointegration equation based on the inter-provincial panel data from 1992 to 2004. And then the inequality of regional financial development is decomposed by Shapley value decomposition method. It is found that the disparities of regional financial development is mainly due to the different conditions of economy, locations and policies of central government which contribution average rate is 39.78%,because of the first advantage and effect of the pilot, the more active period in the reform of finance, the more significant impact. The average years of education is the second largest contributor to the regional financial disparities which contribution average rate is 36.23%.The transaction efficiency of commodity and the efficiency of financial transactions are also important contributors to regional financial disparities.

Abstrat:Based on the analysis of current situation in the central region we explores the relationship between the bottleneck of the economic growth as well as financial weakening. Then we use provincial data of six provinces in central and use panel data unit root test, the co-integration test and error correction model to analyze whether financial development can improve economy, industrial structure as well as the level of urbanization in both long and short periods. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium between financial development and economic growth, and financial development can support the economic growth, while in the short term there isnt any significant relationship. Lastly, based on the conclusions in the research above, we discuss the coordinate financial development approach to realize the central rising and put forward some advice.

Abstrat:Based on the Input-Output approach, this paper discusses the economic meanings of the three important measures of the intra-region multiple effect, the inter-regional spillover effects and feedback effect. By making the relationship among the three measures clearer, this paper further discusses the accordance of their decomposition both on multiplicative and additive ways, and then puts forward a standardized measure to calculate these three effects according to the final use. Based on the first Chinas 8 regions multiregional IOT, this paper studies on the effects of the spillover and feedback between coastal and non-coast regions of China. The result shows that the development of the coastal regions has small spillover effect to the non-coastal regions of China, even smaller than that of the non-coastal to the costal. This reason is also account for the smaller feedback effects of the non-coastal regions than that of the coastal regions.

Abstrat:This paper analyses the relationship between the returns on venture capital investment of local venture capital VC firms in China and their determinants. It empirically assesses the significance of these factors using data from 1999 to 2003 with robust multinomial regression models. The result shows that the returns of state-owned VC firms are lower than those of private VC firms. Furthermore, the returns of the VC firms located in Shanghai and Shenzhen are higher than those in other regions. The capital scale of VC firms also negatively affects the returns. The above results give some insights into the development of venture capital industry in China. Some policy suggestions are provided.

Abstrat:Applying contemporaneous DEA and sequential DEA,this paper measures the technical efficiency,the technical progress and Malmquist productivity indexes in 17 countries and districts in APEC from 1960 to 2004;It has also testified empirically its convergence effect of economic growth. The major conclusions are as follows: In 1980s, the growth of TFP in the East Asian countries has exceeded those in the other APEC countries on average, but what it contributes to labor productivity growth is less than in the developed countries. There was a significant convergence in the levels of labor productivity over the whole period. Capital accumulation was the most important source of convergence. TFP was a significant source of divergence. Sequential DEA eliminates the possibility of technical regress, and provides a more adequate measure technical progress than contemporaneous DEA.

Abstrat:Political patronage theory of public ownership is based on the premise that governments or government of ficials derive political benefits local employment, taxes and profits, and private benefits from the continuing existence of public ownership entities. This theory has predictions on the types of public ownership entities to be privatized first. Using a large sample of Chinas collectively-owned enterprises from 1998 to 2003, we test the predictions of the political patronage theory regarding the causes of privatization. We find that privatization is less likely for those collectively owned enterprises that offer higher political benefits to governments officials, have more reliance on governments for inputs and sales, and enjoy relatively higher positions in the local economy, lending strong support to the political patronage theory and have implications for policy making and implementation.

Abstrat:This paper discusses the holdup problem of selfish effort, cooperative effort and relationship-specific investment under different ownership structures, and then conducts an economic analysis on the primary "internal struggle" "neihao" of SOEs and the primary "internal fight" "neipin" of local governments, which is different form traditional explanations. We also provide some policy suggestions during the course of comparison and discussion.

Abstrat:The relationship between market structure and innovation has always been one of the hot topics in the field of innovation economics since Schumpeter put forward the theory of innovation. The paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literatures of Schumpeterian Hypotheses. In the review of empirical literatures, the research methodologies, sample and main conclusions of each paper are especially emphasized according to logical relationships of the literatures. The researches on Chinese innovation are also introduced in this paper.

Abstrat:Econometrics, microeconomics and macroeconomics now constitute three core courses in modern economics. In China, there has been increasing interest in econometrics, with wide applications of econometric models, methods and tools in empirical studies on the Chinese economy. In this paper, I discuss the basic ideas and methodologies of econometrics, its status, roles and limitations in modern economics, and its differences from mathematical economics, mathematical statistics, and economic statistics. A variety of economic and financial examples illustrate how econometrics can be used in empirical studies.