Abstract：This study probes into the switch of growth stages China is going to experience, with main conclusions as follows: (1) growth stage I, driven by high investment and industrialization, is gradually losing its power of efficiency-enhancing through intervening, and the stage of structural adjustment to improve efficiency is now coming to an end, and meanwhile, growth stage II is being initiated by the development of urbanization and service industry, of which the main characteristics is structural improvement through efficiencyenhancing; (2) three main factors brings about the switch from growth stage I to stage II, viz., the arrival of turning points of demographic structure and labor supply, the sharp changes in output elasticities of production factors along the long-run growth path, and the emerge of the dominance of service industry in the economic structure; (3) rich eastern cities and provinces like Beijing and Shanghai has entered the slowdown growth path, and it is rather certain that in 2016 China‘s economy will slow down during the speeding urbanization process.
Key Words：Potential Growth; Efficiency; Stabilized Slowdown; Structural Adjustment

Abstract：The existing international trade theory focuses on the mechanism of the international trade, but does not give an effective method to explain a country‘s goods export proportion in the world. We think that research of merchandise exports must distinguish commodity structure; whereas the  trade of manufactured goods is the most important in international trade, we select the manufactured goods as the research object and establish a theory frame and empirical model for the measuring of a country’s manufactured goods export proportion in the world.Through the large sample test, we get the following conclusion: A country‘s manufactured goods exports proportion in the world is decided mainly by the amount of its population, population density, population age structure, capital formation, economic development mode, trade cost comparison and profits convert. We apply the above theory and model, soundly explain China’s manufactured goods export growth in the 1985—2010 years and simulate its developing in 2010—2030 period in six situations. Then,We make the following prediction: the 2010—2020 period will still be the golden era for China‘s manufactured goods export growth; during the 2020—2030 period,the global proportion of China’s manufactured goods export will enter into a high level stage, and will reach the historic peak about 25%; then, mainly by the large and swiftly increasing of the dependency ratio of population, the long-term growth trend of China‘s manufactured goods exports will be stop, thus China’s manufactured goods exports would enter into a  declining stage.
Key Words：Export; Population; Manufactured Goods; International Trade

Abstract：This paper combined the feature of SBM directional distance function and Luenberger Index to develop a new method of productivity index’s construction and decomposition. With this new method, the trend and influence factors of Chinese economic growth performance from 1995 to 2010 were analyzed systematically. Results showed that: (1) the energy consumption and pollution discharge mainly contributed to the inefficiency of Chinese economy growth, and the regional environmental efficiency present obvious ladder distribution from east to west.(2)Chinese environmental TFP revealed a slow-down growth in recent years, especially so within eastern coastal regions. (3)The factors on Chinese environmental TFP, ranked by their intensity of influence, were successively output, pollution discharge and input, which implied that rapid economic development made significant contribution to TFP. From a dynamic perspective, this study discovered that the decrease of economic growth performance was mostly related to the factor inputs and pollution discharge in recent years, especially related to the slow-down of efficiency improvement rather than technical advances. Finally, this article provided relative suggestions in the improvement of Chinese economic growth performance.
Key Words：Resource and Environmental Restriction; Economic Growth Performance; Construction and Decomposition of Productivity Index

Abstract：This paper introduces social capital in a horizontal innovation growth model. We assume that social capital could improve the household‘s welfare, as well as enhance the efficiency of the innovation. We find that the higher the importance of the social capital, the household will devote more to accumulate social capital, and the larger the growth rate of knowledge production and economic growth. We construct an index to measure social capital from the perspective of information sharing and mutual communication. With the data of 31 provinces from 2001 to 2010, we analyze the impact of social capital on innovation and economic growth. It is found that social capital has positive effect on innovation, and the impact is larger for the high level innovation in comparison with the low level innovation. Social capital could also enhance economic growth, and this result is robust.
Key Words：Social Capital; Innovation; Economic Growth; Real Output

Abstract：The article demonstrates theoretically that when unlimited labor supply condition turns to limited labor supply, the price effect of output gap will present two transitions: firstly, it will affect capital price and wage simultaneously instead of only affecting capital price as before; secondly, its effect on product price will be enhanced. Based on quarterly macroeconomic data, we use four filtering methods including HP, BK, CF and Kalman filtering to estimate China’s Output gap and adopt Gordon（1996）model to test its price effect. We find that its effect on PPI is actually becoming more powerful than before since 2005. At the same time its effect on wage index begins to be significant since then. These conclusions indicate that China’s potential output begins to be restricted by both capital and labor capacity instead of only being restricted by capital capacity as before, which makes China‘s inflation regulation more difficult.
Key Words：Labor Supply Condition; Output Gap; Price Effect; Potential Output

Abstract：In the past three decades, China created a miracle of high economic growth and rural poverty reduction, from which a lot of experiences can be generalized for the world’s economic development. This paper, from the angle of poverty reduction, believes that the following points could be important for other developing countries: first, with a very small per capita farm land, it‘s not a very good strategy for China to encourage the development of low-value added agriculture in hope for decreasing rural poverty; second, the un-equal development strategy adopted by China in the industrialization do drive the economic growth and poverty reduction successfully, i.e., employing urban biased polices to accumulate capital and creating a huge and fast-growing secondary industry, which provides a lot of employment opportunities for those low-education and low-skill surplus labors from rural China, and as a result, provides chances for rural poor to escape from poverty trap.
Key Words：China Miracle; Rural Poverty; Industrialization; China Experience

Abstract：By examining the stylized facts on fluctuations of China’s consumer prices, the paper finds consumer prices are sticky. Compared with the food, industrial consumer goods, stickiness in services price is more obvious. And the evidences preferring China’s consumer price is state-dependent as a whole are found by testing two price setting models. Nevertheless, service prices are timedependent while food prices and industrial consumer goods prices are statedependent. This means that the process of market liberalization in various sectors is different, which goes faster in food and industrial goods than service sector, though China has owned market-oriented economy. By looking for “non-sensitive range” in all kinds of goods and services and verifying the robustness of CPI decomposition, the paper confirms higher degree of market liberalization is conducive to the stability of industries. Finally, the empirical results support the statedependent pricing hypothesis, which means SDP is more in line with China‘s economic realities than TDP.
Key Words：Sticky Price; Timedependent Pricing; State-dependent Pricing; Market Liberalization

Abstract：Using quarterly data in the period 1992—2009, this paper investigates the policy regularity and characteristics of the changes in the size of tax revenue, and its effects on macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability in China. This paper finds that the behaviors of the size of tax revenue in China can be adequately described in terms of a simple policy rule function. Taxation policy tends to be active and procyclical in the pre-1998 period, and switches thereafter to be passive and countercyclical, indicating that the rapid growth of tax revenues since the mid-1990s is mainly due to the regime switch in taxation policy, which is helpful for macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. Further analysis shows that taxation and monetary policies switch well synchronously during the period 1998—2007, but appear mismatched in the pre-1998 and post-2008 periods.
Key Words：Tax Revenue Size; Taxation Policy Rule; Macroeconomic Stability; Debt Sustainability

Abstract：Carbon motivated border tax (CMBT for short) came into practice when EU levied airline carbon tax in January 2012. Due to large carbon emissions and incremental carbon emissions, China would face the challenge of CMBT. CMBT could reduce China’s carbon emissions, and energy tax or carbon tax (termed as CMBT-emission-equivalent policies) in China could also reduce carbon emissions. Then, which policy option would be more effective to reduce carbon emissions? Put it differently, could carbon emissions reduction justify CMBT? The paper applies a multination CGE trying to analyze and answer these questions. Our simulation results based on CGE model indicate that there would be significant differences in the effects between CMBT and CMBT-emission-equivalent policies. Compared to CMBT-emission-equivalent policies, CMBT would be more costly in reducing carbon emissions, resulting in high carbon leakage rate, and contribute less to world‘s emission reduction. Therefore, carbon emissions reduciton alone will not justify CMBT. However, CMBT could function as an effective coercive measure to force developing economies to accept carbon emission reduction targets and apply more carbon reduction policy measures.
Key Words：Carbon Motivated Border Tax; Carbon Leakage; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Competitiveness

Abstract：This paper empirically analyzes the impact of property rights protection on information asymmetry by investigating into Chinese A-B shares. Our results show that better property rights protection at the city level leads to lower information asymmetry between A-shares and B-shares of the same listed firm. Further analyses show that corporate governance/ transparency may underlie such an impact; to be more specific, better property rights protection is associated with better corporate governance practice and high transparency. Further investigation of others channels is still much desired.
Key Words：Property Rights Protection; Information Asymmetry; Corporate Governance; Transparency

Abstract：This study combined Chinese indigenous social capital theory with Conservation of Resource Theory and Somatic Marker Theory, and proposed a theoretical framework of social capital and self-conscious emotion affected economic cooperative behavior. After Public Goods Game, the result showed that (1) players in friend network had less Free Rider Index than those in stranger network; (2) By resource incentive  and punishment governances, positive self-conscious emotions(i.e.,pride) and negative self-conscious emotions(i.e., embarrass and low self-esteem) are negative relative with Free Rider Index; (3)The effects of social capital on cooperative decision-making were partially mediated by positive self-conscious emotions(i.e., pride) and negative self-conscious emotions(i.e., embarrass and low self-esteem). Practical implication, limitations and future research directions are discussed.
Key Words：Social Capital; Self-conscious Emotions; Public Goods; Free Rider; Emotions Governance