Abstract：This paper investigates three important features on the estimated government spending multiplier within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. These three important features are Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government consumption， externalities produced by government investment， and endogenous fiscal policy rule. First， we work out a simple theoretic model to illustrate the differences between the government consumption multiplier and the government investment multiplier， and point out that the severe bias would result from omitting endogenous fiscal policy rule. Then， based on this simple model， we use Bayesian method to estimate the structure parameters of a large-scale model which augmented with the three important features. By comparing models with different specifications， we find that the model which features the three important effects provides a better description of China‘s economy. The estimated longrun government consumption multiplier and government investment multiplier are 0.7904 and 6.1130. The impulse response analysis shows a big difference between a government consumption shock‘s impact and a government investment shock’s impact.
Key Words：  Government Spending Multiplier; Government Consumption; Government Investment; DSGE Modeling
JEL Classification： C11， E32， E62

Abstract： Based on neoclassical economic growth model of Solow， this article studies the relationship between the optimal saving rate and the actual savings rate in 108 countries around the world with the help of Phelps’s “Golden Rule Level”. The results show that the optimal saving rate fluctuates up and down around the actual savings rate among the majority of countries. Considering the differences in national economic growth targets， this paper puts forward to the ideal optimal saving rate further which regards economic growth forecasts as the variable， and which can meet the national savings rate in the levels of economic development level. Finally， we analyze the various factors affecting the savings rate by using the principal component regression analysis， including the economic， institutional and structural factors， and find that these factors will also change as the change of internal and external conditions for the role of the saving rate.
Key Words： Neoclassical Economic Growth Model; Optimal Saving Rate; Ideal Optimal Savings; Principal Component Regression Analysis
JEL Classification：  E21， E22， O12

Abstract： In this paper， we examined the mechanisms of economic opening and environmental regulation impacting on technology progress within the framework of biased technology progress from Acemoglu et al. (2012). And we made empirical test to the theoretical analysis， using panel data coming from 33 sectors of china industry from 2003 to 2010， adopting FGLS and system GMM. We constructed Global Luenberger index based on SBM model to measure China’s industrial green technology progress. The main conclusions are： (1)technology progress has path dependence， reasonable environmental regulations can change its orientation and will help China industry get on the track of green technology progress; (2)under present weaker environmental regulation and contaminationbiased technostructure， impact of China‘s economic opening on green technology progress can be brought up into positivegoing technology spillover effect and negative-going product structuring effect. These two are reflected at different level in the three aspects of opening. Import coordinated with inland work of R&D giving impetus to green technology progress， while export having adverse impact. For FDI， in the mean time， both effects are markedly embodied. The realization of positivegoing effect is depended on enhanced environmental regulation and proper policy guide.
Key Words：  Environmental Regulation; Economic Opening; Green Technology Progress; China Industry
JEL Classification： Q55， Q56， Q58

Abstract： When facing with emission constraint， firm’s optimal behavior will be changed and thus affect abatement cost directly. As a result， the effectiveness of quantity control policy and price control policy will be different under this situation with uncertainty. This paper introduces this micro-mechanism into the dynamic regional computable general equilibrium model of China to simulate each regions marginal abatement cost curve from year 2007 to 2020 and study the choice between emission trading policy and carbon tax policy. Firstly， the results show that the slopes of each region‘s MAC curve will increase gradually and MAC curves will occur kink points. Secondly， slopes on both sides of MAC curve are different and kink points will move due to tighter emission constraint. For the reason that quantity control policy is more suitable than price control policy when there exists uncertainty and the slope of MAC curve is flat， the results imply that emission trading scheme is more applicable currently in China. But when emission target becomes more stringent in the future， policy makers should also introduce carbon tax into low carbon policy system.
Key Words：  Dynamic Marginal Abatement Cost Curve; Emission Cap and Trading; Carbon Tax
JEL Classification： C68， Q58

Abstract：Chinese residents income gap has been increasing continuously since the reform and opening, which not only attracts much attention of all society, but also brings a great challenge to the development of China, especially to Chinese innovation driven road. From a special perspective of the relation between income gap and technical innovation, this paper overcomes the traditional limitations of the incompleteness of technical innovation forms, the uncontinuity of income gap, the homogeneity of income effect, and considering the difference of the income effect, this paper builds a product innovation competition model among firms under a continuous change of income gap, through which this paper deeply reveals the complex mechanism of the income gap change to product innovation, which comes from the coupling effect of “price effect” and “market scale effect”. Also this paper tests the theory through simulation and econometric analysis. The research shows: there exists a complex nonlinear relationship between income gap(Gini coefficient) and firms‘ product innovation. When “income effect” is small, the “market scale effect” is dominant, the relationship between income gap and product innovation is negative; when “income effect” is large, the “price effect” is dominant, the relationship between income gap and product innovation is positive; when “income effect” is medium, it is a “U” curve relationship between income gap and product innovation. The method and conclusion extend the current research about the relationship between income gap and technical innovation.
Key Words：Income Gap; Product Innovation; Income Effect; Price Effect; Market Scale Effect
JEL Classification：  D21, E64,L16, O31

Abstract：By building DCGE model and with the introduction of the stock of housing assets in the model, we investigate the effects of housing price rising on economic growth and income and wealth gap from a dynamic perspective. The main findings are as follows: Real estate expansion stimulated by housing price rising can significantly improve the rate of economic growth, and drive rapid growth in the construction industry, heavy industry and other industries, but it will also squeeze the space for development of agriculture, light industry and public services sector. Housing price rising will improve income growth of General government, corporations and households, while the unfair distribution that income tends to flow into the government has not been changed. Housing price rising will make the income differentiation among urban households more aggravated, and wealth accumulation from real estate appreciation results in larger gap between rich and poor in recent years.
Key Words：Housing Price Rising; DCGE; The Stock of Housing Assets; Economic Growth; Income and Wealth Gap
JEL Classification： E60, P22, R13

Abstract：Cash dividend is one major way that firms reward their investors. A long-term and stable dividend policy is one sign of a mature capital market. There are established legal environments and investor protection institutions in developed countries, so government do not intervene in corporate dividend policy. In contrast, there are insufficient institutional supports in emerging markets, so regulations are needed to discipline firms’ distribution behavior. In order to protect the interests of investors and to develop sound capital market, China’s Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) requires the “Initial Public Offerings”(IPO) companies to make commitment on future dividend policy in firm articles. This new policy allows both government regulation and firms‘ discretions. Does this policy work? We use IPO firms (small and medium size board and GEM) to answer this question. We find that both CSRC and investors favor IPO firms that commit high dividend payout which have better postIPO performance. The result indicates that dividend payout commitment ratio signals firm value, and the new policy increases resource allocation efficiency. We also find that in the group of IPO firms that commit high dividend payout, firms that make unconditional commitment to pay cash dividends have better post-IPO performance and are less underpriced. But these firms are not more likely to be approved by CSRC. This indicates that dividend commitments conditions also signal firm value. The results show that investors are more efficient in estimating firm value than CSRC. This study not only provides empirical evidence for future IPO registration-based system reform, also shows the practical value to let the market decide the allocation of resources addressed by the Third Plenary Session of 18th CPC Central Committee.
Key Words： Cash Dividend Commitment; IPO Approval; IPO Underpricing; Capital Allocation Efficiency
JEL Classification：G14, G35, G18

Abstract：This paper introduces transnational differences in both total factor productivity(TFP) and comprehensive trade costs(CTC) into the basic bilateral HOV framework, and uses the World Input-Output Database(WIOD), to make a multi-dimensional evaluation of net factor flow distortions embodied in China’s trade in value-added(TiVA). On the whole, the distortions in both capital and labor flows are declining. The distortions in capital flows are more profound in export than in import, but it is converse for labor flows. Compared with high-skilled labor, low-and mediumskilled and especially low-skilled labor is less distorted in the cross-border trade. Compared with China‘s bilateral trade with the so-called BRICS economies such as Brazil, India, and Russia, China’s bilateral trade with the major partners like USA, Japan, South Korea, Germany and Taiwan is characterized by less distorted capital and labor cross-border movements. There are fewer sectors that are affected by distortions in low-and medium-skilled and especially low-skilled labor flows. Sectors with more trade are less affected by factor flow distortions. The study shows that factor endowment structures are still the basis determining whether and how much an economy’s TiVA is influenced by the distortions in factor crossborder flows. Therefore, in order to upgrade the TiVA and related industrial basis, and meanwhile to reduce factor flow distortions embodied in TiVA, China should prioritize the optimization and upgrading of domestic factor endowment structures relative to foreign economies.
Key Words：TiVA; WIOD; HOV Model; Factor Content of Trade; Factor Flow
JEL Classification： F14, F15, F20

Abstract：China‘s housing price has experienced a continuous increase since late 1990s. With a house ownership ratio above 80%, the continuous price rising should have a significant effect on household investment, consumption, and entrepreneurship. This paper constructs an occupational choice model and distinguishes the effect of price on entrepreneurship into a wealth effect, a borrowing effect, and a substitution effect. Based on the model, we find that a rising housing price has different impact on people with and without house ownership. We also analyzed the impact of household wealth and mortgage loan amount. In the empirical part, we use micro-level data to test model predictions. This study highlights the negative consequences of surging housing price on entrepreneurship in developing countries.
Key Words： Housing Price; Entrepreneurship; Wealth Effect; Credit Constraint
JEL Classification：J23, R21, O18

Abstract：The paper introduces a new distribution to improve tail risk modelling. We first demonstrate that the fundamental model of risk metrics， like VaR and ES，which leads to their inability to measure risk in a realistic， dynamic economic environment. Then， random limit normal distribution model is proven to be more effective for measuring and managing risk in the real business world. By employing the new distribution， we then propose more prudential risk metrics —— R-VaR and R-ES.
Key Words：  Risk Models; Prudential Risk Management; High Peak and Fat Tails; Value at Risk; Expected Shortfall
JEL Classification： G28， G32， C46

Abstract：This paper completes three parts original works: (1) clearly defining A and B system of transformation problem and demonstrating the logical consistency of B system and Marxian theory. (2) Solving some difficulties about empirical analysis using B system and then making calculation strictly followed the theoretical model. (3) According to this method and using Chinese 2007 input-output table, we investigate the value vector and production price vector and demonstrate that the “Marx’s two equations” could be realized. An important aspect of this calculation is that the market price in China is deviated more from labor value than production price, which is different from most previous conclusions.
Key Words：Transformation Problem; Physical Wage Vector; B System; Inputoutput Table; Money Expression of Labor Time
JEL Classification： B51, C67

Abstract：Using about 5000 samples collected from Qing Dynasty’s homicide reports during 1732—1895, this paper provides a quantitative analysis of the relationship between lenders and borrowers. We find that the death probability of lenders exceeds borrowers’ when interest rate is positive and that lenders‘ death rate increases as the interest rate rises. It means lenders face substantially higher default risk including life risk than borrowers. These results don‘t support the hypotheses of “usury is exploitation” and “lenders have extra-economic compulsions”. Usury could not be comprehensively explained without considering the additional risk premium required for the life risk faced by the lender in the process of enforcing the lending contract. Furthermore, moral critics on usury have probably increased the likelihood of violence between lenders and borrowers. These findings may help us better understand the needed informal finance reforms.
Key Words： Usury; Extra-economic Compulsions; Moral Economy; Homicide Reports
JEL Classification： N25, N45, Q14, D14