Abstract：This paper shows that regulatory capture caused by the policy burdens is the key reason for the absence of food safety regulation.In the earlier time， because the regulatory technology is relatively low， strict supervision is short of effectiveness and conflict with local development objectives.Governments often improve local development at the price of food security.As regulation technology improves， implementing strict supervision can effectively ensure food security， promote the overall development of the food industry and achieve the governments' objectives.However， restricted to policy burdens caused by the regulatory capture， local governments are difficult to effectively implement strict supervision.Only through changing in the regulatory pattern， such as independent judiciary， vertical supervision and social supervision， and introducing regulatory bodies unaffected by policy burdens， can food safety regulation be actively promoted to the transition to the strict law governing.At this point the governments can not only achieve policy objectives， but effectively improve food safety standards.
Key Words：Food Safety; Policy Burden; Regulation Capture; Strict Supervision; Regulation by Law
JEL Classification：L51， P48， Q18

Abstract：This Article builds a simple two-period OLG model to discuss the relationships among population aging， commodity tax burden on the elderly and fiscal sustainability.The results of theoretical analysis show that， the proportion of old population has a “U-shaped” relationship between fiscal sustainability: When the commodity tax burden on old population falls below a certain critical point， population aging is harmful to fiscal sustainability; When the commodity tax burden on old population exceeds the critical point， population aging has a positive influence on fiscal sustainability.Based on China's 1981—2012 time series data， this article builds a threshold cointegration model to test the “U-shaped” relationship between population aging and fiscal sustainability， in which the threshold variable is commodity tax burden of old people.This article finds that the critical point is the commodity tax burden of the elderly as a share of GDP is about 1.5%.The policy implication is that the government should raise the retirement age， support the development of aging industry and improve the level of social security in order to enhance the old people's consumption ability and willingness.
Key Words：Population Aging; Commodity Tax Burden; Fiscal Sustainability; Threshold Cointegration Model
JEL Classification：H53， J14

Abstract：This research paper investigates the relationship between performance aspiration and strategic change and explores the moderating effects of three different sorts of managerial discretions.The findings show that the larger performance-aspiration gap incurs higher level of strategic change.Higher organizational discretion(higher resource endowment and lower organization inertia)and environmental discretion(higher market munificence)strengthen the degree of strategic change when mangers face the increase of performance-aspiration gap.In contrast， lack of institutional discretion constraints the discretion of managers' decision-making， and results to the lower level of strategic change， however， political ties endow manager greater institutional discretion， and strengthen the degree of strategic change when performance is below aspiration.This research enriches current understanding on the motivation of strategic change from performance aspiration perspective.More specifically， this research provides insights into the influence of managerial discretion on managers' decision-making in the Chinese transitional economy context.
Key Words：Performance Aspiration; Strategic Change; Managerial Discretion; Institutional Discretion
JEL Classification：D21， D22， D23， M10

Abstract：The paper uses household survey data of transitional countries in 2010 to explore the effect of political networks on entrepreneur.Our results suggest that the political networks have positive effects on entrepreneur， and these effects are shown to be causal after we implement propensity score matching instrumental variables analysis.More important， we find that political networks exert a positive effect on entrepreneur only when institutional environment is relatively worse.In addition， political networks have impact on entrepreneur through the channel of breaking the law.Our empirical results suggest that it is vital for government to frame a better institutional environment for cultivate the entrepreneurship.
Key Words：Entrepreneur; Political Networks; Institutional Environment; Transitional Countries
JEL Classification：M13， P30， H10

Abstract：The sequential input-oriented Luenberger productivity indicator(SIL)is proposed to measure the regional economic growth performance in China from 1985 to 2012， based on a new series of indicators including total-factor labor productivity indicator， total-factor capital productivity indicator， and total-factor energy productivity indicator.It is found that ecological total-factor productivity growth was mainly driven by technology progress and its regional discrepancies increased.With the changing of regional development strategy orientation， labor， capital and energy contributed to the slowdown of ecological total-factor productivity improvement together.Labor had the largest contribution， followed by capital and energy.The first contributor in east， central and west areas were labor， energy and capital respectively.The distribution of provincial SIL changed from unipolar pattern to two-peak pattern， meanwhile presented low mobility and high persistence.
Key Words：Economic Growth Performance; Total-Factor Labor Productivity; Total-Factor Capital Productivity; Total-Factor Energy Productivity
JEL Classification：D24， O47

Abstract：This paper introduces Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index， taking into account of the growth of “good” output and the reduction of “bad” output at the same time.We apply the index to measure the TFP growth of service industry for China's 31 provinces and services sub-sector industry based on the provincial panel data from 2000—2012 and industry panel data from 2004—2012， and conduct a comparative analysis to the regional and industry disparity of TFP change that was not taken into account of environmental factors.The result shows that the TFP growth of Chinas service industry possessed greater heterogeneity of the regional and industry.We also find that the growth of service total factor productivity is mainly caused by technical progress， not to consider environmental factors overestimates total factor productivity and its contribution to service growth.The services economic rapid growth is at the expense of natural resource destruction and service environmental pollution in China.There is still a lot technical efficiency to improve the service growth.
Key Words：Productivity of Service Industry; Environmental Constraint; “Bad” Output; Heterogeneity
JEL Classification：D24， L80， O47

Abstract：This paper studies the impact of imported intermediate inputs and imports of final goods on firm by taking product complexity into account， based on highly disaggregated Chinese transaction-level trade data and firm-level production data from 2002 to 2006.After controlling for the endogeneity of imported intermediate inputs， we confirm that firms could benefit from imports.Further， we find import could improve firm productivity which produce homogeneous goods， but has little effect on those produce complex goods.To explain this heterogeneous effect， market concentration is introduced， and the result reveals that import competition effect weighs more in homogeneous industry while import spillover effect is more important to heterogeneous industry.The little impact of imports on firm productivity in heterogeneous industry could be explained by weak import spillover effect due to low R&D efficiency.
Key Words：Import Competition Effect; Import Spillover Effect; Firm Productivity; Product Complexity; Market Concentration
JEL Classification：F10， F13

Abstract：China's service export scale and industry structure present rapid expansion and favorable development situation in the past decade， then， what are their theoretical mechanisms？This paper puts forward a novel interpretation dimension for constructing new comparative advantages in the context of service globalization， which is called “home market effect”.With the introduction of service firm heterogeneity assumption， this paper builds two countries' service firm trade model under industrial vertical correlation， and proves the existence and conditions of home market effect in theory; it also uses the panel data of bilateral trade in services between China and 41 countries or regions from 2000 to 2013 to test.The result shows that home market effect exists in China's overall service export.The role of comparative advantage in promoting service export is stronger than home market effect.In classification， home market effect exists in producer services and the home market effect of technology and knowledge-intensive services is greater than capital-intensive services.In sectors， transportation， construction， communications， financial services， insurances services， computer and information services， government services have home market effect.Expanding the number of high income groups， increasing the service trade openness level and improving the technology level are conducive to the overall services exports.The differences of relative demand structure， degree of trade liberalization and technical level have different effects in each department export.Based on the confirmation of home market effect， this paper provides a new train of thought for China's service trade strategy， which has important policy implications for expanding the domestic demand strategy， speeding up the service trade liberalization， and promoting the structural adjustment of service industry and service trade.
Key Words：Service Trade; Home Market Effect; Heterogeneity Service Trade Model; Gravity Model
JEL Classification：F11， F14， L80

Abstract：Academic literature hasn't attached enough attention to the export quality when they explain trade growth in China.Based on index theory and discomposition model of price， this paper builds a comparable index of export quality in Chinese industries.Meanwhile， it researches empirically the effect of export quality on export volumn in industries.The conclusions include: in the horizontal， Chinese lower export quality among sample countries in industries; in the vertical， different trends of export quality in Chinese different industries， the tendency of food and live animals， chemicals and related products， manufactured goods classified chiefly by material in these industries on the rise; the promotion of export quality in Chinese industris resulting counterpart countries' growth of import trade percentage from China， especially to low-middle income countries.Hence， the strategic target of central government， which is the translating development pattern of foreign trade from the expand of scale to the improvement of quality， is feasible and necessary.
Key Words：Impure Price Index; Export Quality; Export Volume
JEL Classification：F14， F17， F63

Abstract：By constructing an individual utility and social welfare maximization model， we show that the optimal health insurance reimbursement rate can be expressed as a function of several sufficient statistics.We then could evaluate whether China's current Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance or URBMI and New Rural Basic Medical Insurance or NRBMI have reached the optimal reimbursement rate using a city level dataset collected from a “natural experiment”.Our empirical analysis shows that the utilization of inpatient services will increase with the level of reimbursement rate if the reimbursement rate is relatively low， however， the utilization will remain unchanged if the rate is relatively high.Interestingly， we find that total medical expenditure will not be affected significantly by the increase in current reimbursement rate of that city， however， patient's out-of-pocket expenditure will decrease.Finally， using the parameters estimated from the empirical models， our results show that the reimbursement rate of both URBMI and NRBMI is lower than the optimal level.
Key Words：Medical Insurance；Demand for Medical Services；Difference in Difference; Sufficient Statistic
JEL Classification：G22， I13， I18

Abstract：The land has been regarded as the most important source of farmers' income for thousands of years.But with the rising of the proportion of wage income， the role of land is increasingly blurred in growth of farmers' income in the new century.This paper empirically analyses the effect of rural land on income growth in China by developing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which considering some unique economic phenomena in China.The numerical simulations based on the model find some useful results: China's rural land protects farmers' agricultural income but also hinders the growth of offfarm income; the effect on total income of farmers will change with the variation of economic circumstance and also is not significant; with the rising of the land size per capita， agricultural investment will have stronger(weaker)effects on improving farmers' agricultural(off-farm)income.Furthermore， the paper uses the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2012 to verify the above conclusions.Therefore， the rural land could play a greater role in protecting the growth of farmers' income with the expansion of the scale of rural land management.
Key Words：Land; Famers' Income; Protection; Income Obstacle
JEL Classification：Q15， O15， E32

Abstract：Traditional tenancy theory suggests the sharecropping contractual efficiency is less than the fix-rent contract's efficiency without considering the risk factor.When it is transformed into transaction cost and the wage rate reaches certain condition， the conclusion that the sharecropping contract has the same efficiency with the fix-rent contract can be proved.What's more， if the game theory model relaxes the homogeneous factor assumption， then we can get these hypotheses: low quality land and high ability labor are matching with the sharecropping contract; by contrast， high quality land and low ability labor are matching with the fix-rent contract.Basing on it， it proves that the fix-rent contract is the best choice under the symmetry information structure and the sharecropping contract is the best arrangement in the asymmetry information environment.At last， it uses the historical empirical data from Professor Bucks research about 2866 peasantries in 7 provinces of China in the earlier 20 century to test implication of the theoretic hypothesis.
Key Words：Risk Cost; Factor Characteristics; Contractual Matching; Share Tenancy Theory
JEL Classification：C72， K11， Q15