Abstract： Basing on the situations of our country and the practice of socialist economic reform, contemporary Chinese Marxist political economy not only sublimates the experience and rational understanding accumulated in this practice process, but also highlights the epoch features of Marxist political economy in research and application the basic principles of Marxist political economy through a broader horizon. The “terms revolution” characterized by originality and critical inheritance in contemporary Chinese Marxist political economy becomes the typical characteristic of the academic paradigm whose core objective is to establish a “systematic economic doctrine”. Contemporary Chinese Marxist political economy seeks to separate the wheat from the chaff in various economic theories. In its own development process, contemporary Chinese Marxist political economy gradually formed contrasting approachesexchange, fusion, confrontation-toward various economic theories. Contemporary Chinese Marxist political economy has many new developments and gets a rare historic opportunity to innovate “systematic economic doctrine” in the process of economic development at the decisive stage of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Xi Jinping's thoughts on upholding and developing Marxism is “compulsory” and contributing “Chinese wisdoms” to new development of Marxist political economy embodies new requirements for the development of contemporary Chinese Marxist political economy
Key Words： Political Economy; Marxism; Contemporary China; Socialism with Chinese Characteristics

Abstract： The paper intends to present a review on the pros and cons of flow approach and stock approach， a traditionally controversial topic in the history of monetary theory. In view of its relation to savings effect and the structure of financial right， the issue will carry a special significance to the understanding of the monetary logic in China's financial reform. The paper finds that flow approach， represented by Tsiang， S. C. and some other economists， seems to have held the upper hand. Yet， due to its rigid confinement to the full market assumption and its failure to tackle the challenge posed by the logic of the dual origin of money， their analysis ended up in vain in the effort to reestablish theoretical paradigm. Later， the progress of the financial reform in China offered a rare opportunity to test the validity of the two approaches， for it brought into surface the structure of financial right that had been hiding underneath. Thus， money analysis might therefore be able to step onto the correct path leading to the reestablishment of the institutional paradigm of financial analysis.
Key Words： Flow Approach； Savings Effect； Structure of Financial Right； Institutional Paradigm of Financial Analysis

Abstract： As the effectiveness of China's monetary policy has decreased， it is difficult to stabilize macroeconomy by using monetary policy. This paper builds up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in the presence of expectation error shocks and expectation management policy， to study the performance of expectation management in response to economic fluctuations. The model shows that expectation management policy， by leading counter-cyclical inflationary expectation to market， enables to reduce economic volatility significantly and make economy converge back to steady state faster. Welfare loss analysis implies that expectation management could cause a drop of welfare loss by nearly 40 percent in the context where monetary policy is not effective. Therefore， under current situation with declining effectiveness of monetary policy， China should pay substantial attention to expectation management.
Key Words： Monetary Policy； Expectation Management； Economic Cycle

Abstract： With interest rate in China almost liberalized， it has signified the importance and urgency of the central bank to turn to priced based monetary policy. As the anchor in the price based monetary policy， the natural rate of interest provides an essential benchmark in the interest control of the central bank. In this article， we construct a state space model based on new Keynesian general equilibrium model to estimate the natural rate of interest of China. The results show that natural rate of interest is a leading indicator to the GDP growth， and could interpret and forecast the economic growth trend. Meanwhile， the real interest rate gap is an inflation indicator and is helpful in making and evaluating the monetary policy. Generally， the natural rate of interest plays an important role in pricebased monetary policy transformation and macro-economy policy under the New Normal.
Key Words： Natural Rate of Interest； Potential Output； Price-based Monetary Policy； State Space Model

Abstract： In recent years， trade-finance arbitrage activities have been hyperactive with no systematic theoretical framework and effective countermeasures in place， in order to observe the commodity prices change and the effect of monetary policy from a new perspective， we try to take trade-finance arbitrage activities into consideration to establish the equilibrium framework of arbitrage storage based on the traditional theory of storage. And through the idea of effect demonstration， a new method is provided to diagnose the active level of trade-finance arbitrage activities. According to the empirical results， tradefinance arbitrage activities across borders are more active than those within；When domestic market interest rate rise above the equilibrium level， the interest spread is likely to be widen， so the effect of trade-finance arbitrage is magnified；The suppression effects of current depreciation of RMB and government regulation are very limited；If contractionary monetary policy is implemented， the effect of trade-finance arbitrage is likely to strengthen the undershooting effect of commodity market.
Key Words： The Effect of Costofcarry； The Effect of Trade-finance Arbitrage； Commodity Prices Change； The Effect of Monetary Policy

Abstract： How do trade policies affect employment？ Based on the quasinatural experiment of China's accession to the WTO in 2001， this paper analyzes the impact of input trade liberalization on Chinese manufacturing firms' job dynamics by using the difference in difference method. The results show that：(1)Input trade liberalization has positive influence on firms' net growth of employment through “improving job creation” and “reducing job destruction”;(2)The effects of input trade liberalization on firms' job dynamics are significantly different among firms with different productivity levels. It promotes the job creation of high productive firms， while contributes to the job destruction of low productive firms and increases the probability of exiting from the market for lowest productive firms;(3)A good institutional environment is conducive to strengthen the positive influence of input trade liberalization on manufacturing jobs dynamics with both intensive margin and extensive margin; (4)The improvement of the job reallocation efficiency is an important channel for the positive effect of input trade liberalization on the overall productivity growth of manufacturing. Our results suggest that， it is vital for government to carry out external trade liberalization reform and internal marketoriented reform simultaneously for cultivate employment and achieve industry transition and upgrading.
Key Words： Input Trade Liberalization; Job Creation; Job Destruction; Job Reallocation; Difference in Difference

Abstract：This paper considers both global value chains and domestic value chains， building for the first time a framework tracing value added in one country's exports at the regional level. Then， based on this framework， this paper traces value added in China's exports at the provincial level， and makes some applications. The results reveal that： (1) Among the sources of value of every province's export， domestic value added has the highest share， returned domestic value added has the lowest share， and domestic vertical specialization and foreign vertical specialization have medium shares. The level of development has negative and positive correlations with the share of domestic value added and the share of foreign vertical specialization respectively. (2) The gap among every province's export will narrow if measured by value added export. The provinceindustry with comparative advantage tend to provide more value added to other provinces. China's low ratio of domestic value added in exports is mainly due to low ratio of value added exports to gross exports in manufacturing industries in coastal provinces. (3) There are differences between revealed comparative advantage measured by value added exports and gross exports; and as for many provinceindustries， the revealed comparative advantage even reverses. As for most provinces， the level of export specialization measured by value added export is less than it measured by gross exports.
Key Words： Global Value Chains; Value Added; Comparative Advantage; Export Specialization

Abstract： In China's unique decentralized system，macroeconomic policies of the central authorities must rely on local governments who have substantial financial and administrative resources.In order to explore the running mechanism of China's macroeconomic policy based on the data of urban industrial land in 2007—2011; we investigate how stimulus plan determine industrial land transfer by using difference in difference method.Our results show：(1) growth pressure will make local government more active to using stimulus plans and have more industrial land transfer，but fiscal pressure is will restricted; (2) without stimulus plan，growth pressure does not take effect on land transfer in local government; (3) When the tenure of municipal secretary in office is more long，especially over 3 years，local government are more likely to give more industrial land transfer.These results suggest that，promotion incentive of economic growth performance competition is important motivation for local government investment and economic development.This effect also has impact on China's macroeconomic policy and economic volatility.
Key Words： Economic Stimulus Plan; Growth Pressures; Industrial Land Transfer

Abstract： Since the Tax Sharing Reform，central government got a large share of governmental revenue and project approval authority.Thus，the political connection between local governments and ministries can significantly affect the ability of getting the resources and the development opportunity and then affect the local economic growth.Using ministers' birthplace to measure political connection and DMSP/OLS satellite data as a proxy of economic growth，this paper explores the impacts of the political connections on prefecture economic growth from 1998 to 2007 with difference-in-difference identification.We find that the new ministers significantly increase 27% on the economic growth of their birthplace，but no significant effect to their original or worked cities.We also find the effect of political connections is asymmetric between new ministers and retired ministers.The political connections effect has been realized mainly through increasing the investment of their birthplace.
Key Words： Political Connection; Economic Growth; DMSP/OLS Satellite Data; Ministers

Abstract： Corruption as a cancer of human society has been widely existed in every country in every historical period.Corruption violates social justice and hinders economic development.However，we still know little about the nature of corruption and the popular principleagent model about corruption cannot provide powerful guidance for anticorruption practice.We believe one essential aspect of corruption is it reflects a social dilemma problem.This paper investigates the corruption behavior when agents face a risk of “group failure” with the classic bribery game as background.Due to the conflict between individual rationality and collective rationality，pervasive corruption behavior is observed in the experiment，which made the group fall into the trap of “the dilemma of corruption”.The average payoff of participants is less than the reservation payoff if there is no corruption.This paper also investigates the effects of individual characteristics on corruption，including gender，risk preference，trust，corruption beliefs，as well as prosocial propensity，etc.
Key Words： Corruption; Social Dilemma; Group Failure; Experiment

Abstract： Using a unique sample from Chinese listed companies which disclose information on pledged debt，this paper examines the effect of the 2007 Property Law on supply chain finance from the angle of bank loans pledged by accounts receivable.The results show that，after the enforcement of the Property Law，both stateowned and private firms use more bank loans pledged by accounts receivable.Further evidence shows that，stateowned firms and firms located in regions with high financial development use more bank loans pledged by accounts receivable.Moreover，banks provide less loans pledged by accounts receivable to firms with higher customer concentration，but more loans pledged by accounts receivable to firms with private customers.The paper not only contributes to the literature on supply chain finance，creditor protection，and trade credit financing，but also provides insight on the practice of improving the Property Law and promoting supply chain finance，especially on relaxing the problems of private firms or SMEs financing through bank loans pledged by accounts receivable.
Key Words： Supply Chain Finance; Movable Property; Accounts Receivable Pledge; Customer Concentration

Abstract：The allocation of environmental benefit between economic entities and regions not only affects social equity，but also closely relate to the sustainability of development. This paper builds a measurement model of distribution pattern of environmental dividend in economic entities and regions，so as to form the basis of pricing environmental compensation. It turns out that firms benefit most from environmental dividend，which accounts for up to 41%. Rural residents enjoy more environmental dividend compared to city dwellers，but the gap is shrinking，and now contribute 21% and 19% accordingly. The proportion of government rises from 14% to 19% after the reform of taxsharing system，which，doesn't come from firms. Instead，it is because of the decline in the allocation proportion of rural residents. Also，pollution cost transfers gradually from nearby to distant areas，rather than from east to west as is widely accepted. Regions in mideastern China have always bore more environmental cost than those in western China，although the gap is diminishing. Therefore，tax distribution between central government and local government would be more reasonable，if the weight of environmental cost in each region is considered. Meanwhile，environmental taxation exclusive price will do good job to reduce pollution.
Key Words： Environmental Dividend; Benefit Allocation; Cost Transfer； Inequality

Abstract：Based on nationally rural household panel data from 2003 to 2010，using methods of descriptive statistics and econometric analysis，we examine how improvements in human capital affect the income level in rural China. We find that human capital improvement，including health，basic education，skills training and work experience，is significant factor affecting the level of household income. The total contribution rate of human capital improvement to household income growth is 38.57%，which health and basic education are the most prominent influence factors. Human capital is mainly through the labor income impact on household income，which is the most significant to wage income. The effects of human capital vary by region and year and across different income sources，which show that human capital for the role of household income growth maintains a weakening trend with the marketoriented reform. The findings suggest that improving human capital，especially health and education improvement，is an important mechanism to increase income in rural China.
Key Words： Human Capital; Household Income in Rural China; Return Rate; Contribution Rate; National Rural Fixed Observation Point