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Selectivity of Labor Force Transfer and Prospects of Development of China's Agriculture (Stage Achievement of the National
Date:2012-04-11       From:Research Center of Agricultural Development of Shaanxi Normal University, Lu Yonggang

 

If the "polarization" effect of labor selective transfer exists indeed, agricultural modernization path of Ranis-Fei model may be a dead end. When the quality of the labor force weakens and the non-agricultural employment threshold exists, the transfer of agricultural labor is difficult to be fully conducted, and agricultural surplus labor or “disguised unemployed” is difficult to eliminate, therefore the agricultural sector 's "business points" is difficult to emerge or at least will be delayed. Non-skill-biased technique, although appropriate, and also conducive to improve land productivity and output growth has insufficient advancing force. However, its influence in improving labor productivity is limited. Thus, the progress of the total output curve extrapolation blocked or is made longer, and "turning point" appearance will be of no hope or delayed. If the completion of the modernization of agriculture is understood as turning from a dualistic to a unitary structure, namely the convergence of agricultural sector and the developed non-agricultural sectors, such an outcome would be more difficult to imagine. Within the analysis framework given in this section, the best prospects of China's agricultural development, at best, is as Huang (2006; 2007) described, the labor-intensive and low-skilled small-scale family farms, having a big gap with the non-agricultural sector.

 

When human capital accumulation rate was endogenous in the labor selective transfer process, and the rate of the agricultural labor force is greater than or equal to that of non-agricultural labor force, there will be a series of positive changes to the development of the agricultural sector.

 

Firstly, the "polarization" effect of selective labor transfer will eventually disappear. At this point, in short-term, labor transfer may also make selective configuration of development resources between agricultural and non-agricultural sector, but in the long term, the already existing gap between the two departments in labor quality, technical type and impetus to the development will blur.

 

Secondly, the technical threshold of the non-agricultural sector employment will be relatively reduced because of improved skills of laborers, the transfer capacity of surplus agricultural labor force and non-agricultural viability will be enhanced, and the agricultural labor force is expected to become a scarce resource and then be

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