A Research of Housing Bubbles Measurement in Our Country ——Basic factors, Main Indicators, and Partial Equilibrium Model
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| Title | A Research of Housing Bubbles Measurement in Our Country ——Basic factors, Main Indicators, and Partial Equilibrium Model
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| Author | Zhang Baolin；He Xiaofeng |
| Organization | School of Economics and Management,Beijng Forestry University; School of Economics Peking University |
| Email | zhangbaolinpku@gmail.com,hexf@vip.sina.com |
| Key Words | Housing Market; Bubble Measurement; Indicators; Regulating Policies |
| Abstract | This paper reconstructs a partial equilibrium model of housing market with variables such as fixed cost, vacancy rate, and non-performed loan rate and so on. It logically combines indicators approach with theoretical price approach of housing bubble measurement by building up vacancy rate, house-income ratio, house-land price ratio and land-construction price ratio in the model. It also measures the housing bubble and the contribution of these indicators in 12 Chinese cities with the data from the year 1995 to 2009. The results indicate that there are decreasing total bubbles and relatively stable and rational bubbles in the cities during the period. They show that there are relatively small and speculative housing bubbles in most middle and west cities while the bubbles in east cities have been expanding rapidly. Moreover, the four indicators are significantly positive in the model so that they can accurately indicate the speculative degree of the bubbles and provide the authorities with better thoughts of controlling the bubbles. |
| Serial Number | WP4 |
| Time | 2010-10-24 |
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