When Unemployment Rate Meets Urbanization in China
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| Title | When Unemployment Rate Meets Urbanization in China
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| Author | Su Chiwei,Si Dengkui,Zhao Yanping and Liu Tieying |
| Organization | School of Economics, Ocean University of China |
| Email | cwsu7137@gmail.com； |
| Key Words | Urbanization; Unemployment Rate; Fourier Function; Structure Breaks; Convergence |
| Abstract | This paper uses urban-rural dual theory and urbanization to investigate unemployment rate in China. We divided China’s 28 provinces into four economic area according to region functional positioning feature, applied stationary test with a Fourier function proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to test the stationary of unemployment rate from provincial perspective. This method has higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and smooth breaks than linear method if the true data generating process of unemployment rate convergence is in fact a stationary non-linear process. The results show that unemployment rate in Eastern region (except Beijing, Hebei and Guangdong), West region (except Qinghai, Ningxia and Shannxi) and Anhui is convergence, meaning that dual economic structure in these regions is broken. The West region is relied on demographic dividend, their national policy and their own resources superiority to reduce the unemployment rate with the development of urbanization. The Eastern coastal region expands domestic demand in the context of low-end industrial transformation, while unemployment rate in Central region of and Northeast is non-convergence. It means these regions have greater flexibility of labor demand and have obvious dual economic structure, revealing there are significant differences of unemployment rate among provinces. |
| Serial Number | WP711 |
| Time | 2014-09-22 |
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