| Abstract | Based on integrating FEER model and BEER model, this paper put forward and tested RMB fundamental behavioral equilibrium exchange rate(FBEER)model, and studied the equilibrium, misalignment, correction of RMB real effective exchange rate. The empirical study shows: China's economic growth slowdown, China's FDI growth slowdown, U.S. economic growth acceleration and the quit of U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy lead to the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation. The appreciating trend of RMB exchange rate from 2005 exchange rate reform was over. The probability of the depreciating trend of RMB exchange rate in the future is small. From 2014Q4 on, RMB real effective exchange rate was overestimated, RMB real effective exchange rate was overestimated by 4.9% in 2015Q1. There is RMB real effective exchange rate error-correction organism, its function is very strong. RMB real effective exchange rate depreciate by 1%, lead to China’s export growth by 0.99%,China’s import growth by 0.96%,China’s surplus from U.S. basing on China’s data growth by 2.04% and U.S. deficit from China basing on U.S. data growth by 1.34%. The moment,the magnitude of depreciation and the aim of the people's bank of China “8.11 Exchange Rate New Policy” is appropriate, it did not imply RMB join “Currency War”. |