CONTENTS
Historical Change of the Reform and Fundamental Transition of the Economic
Growth Mode in China
······································Liu Wei (4)
Structural Change of Chinese Macroeconomic and Financial Series and Causality An
alysis
····························Liang Qi and Teng JianZhou (11)
China's Property Cycles and Financial Stability
····························Zhang Xiaojing and Sun Tao (23)
Social Interaction, Trust, and Stock Market Participation
······································Li Tao (34)
An Empirical Analysis on the Regional Disparity of Technical Efficiency Realized
in China's Service Industries
·····························Gu Naihua and Li Jiangfan (46)
The Entry of Creationary Employees and Competitive Policy
····························· Liu Zhibiao and Chen Liu (57)
Information Technology, Organizational Innovation, and Productivity:
Evidence on the Phase Characteristics of Complementarities
····················Wang Miaojun, Zhang Weiying and Zhou LiAn (65)
An Empirical Study of A Linkage Between Natural Resource Abundance and Economic
Development
·····························Xu Kangning and Wang Jian (78)
Ownership Concentration, Outside Blockholders, and Operating Performance
························Xu Liping， Xin Yu and Chen Gongmeng (90)
An Empirical Study on The Pricing of Block Shares in China
·······························Xu Xinzhong and Others (101)
Calculation and Decomposition of the Overall Gini Coefficient in
Dual Economies
···································Cheng Yonghong (109)
The Frontier Research on China Business Cycle:
A Summary for National Business Cycle Workshop
·····································Jin Chengwu (121)
Book Review
·····································Yuan Zhigang (123)
Historical Change of the Reform and Fundamental Transition of the Economic Growth Mode of China
Liu Wei
(School of Economics,Peking University)
Abstract:
China's economic development and reform has been entering into a new historian era.And it offered
a series of specific questions for us.The key issue for dealing with such questions is on the
change of economic growth mode which is based on the technological creation.Technological
creation is associated with institutional creation indeed.Hence promoting the productivity
becomes the first motive force for the economic mode change under such conditions.In some
circumstances,there exists a deep conflict between efficiency and equality.Therefore,keeping the
first motive force to the economic sustainable growth needs to solve the problem of social income
distribution inequality.Facing to the inequilibrium of social income distribution,we should apply
different policy implications vary different reasons in order to deal with the relationship
between equality and efficiency appropriately.
Key Words:
Economic Development; Growth Mode; Economic Marketization; Income Inequality
JEL Classification:P200，E610，O110
Structural Change of Chinese Macroeconomic and Financial Series and Causality Analysis
Liang Qi and Teng JianZhou
(Nankai University; Northeast Normal University, Hitotsubashi University)
Abstract: This paper applies unit root tests to 10 Chinese macroeconomic and financial series
that allow for the possibility of up to two endogenous structural breaks. We find that 6 out of
10 series, which are GDP, GDP per capita, total number of employed persons, bank credit, deposit
liabilities and fixed capital, can be more accurately characterized as a segmented trend
stationary process around one or two structural breaks as opposed to a stochastic unit root
process. The conclusions have important implications for policymakers to formulate longterm
economic growth strategy and shortrun stabilization policies, as well as causality analysis
among series.
Key Words:
Macroeconomic Time Series; Unitroot Testing; Multiple Breakpoints; Segmented Trend Stationary;
Causality
JEL Classification:C220；O110；E300
China's Property Cycles and Financial Stability
Zhang Xiaojing
(Institute of Economics,CASS)
Sun Tao
(Financial Stability Bureau,People's Bank of China)
Abstract: Real estate cycles and financial stability are closely interrelated. China's real
estate cycle since 1998 involved in the global real estate bubbles draws worldwide attention.
Based on analyzing three driving factors of real estate cycle in the aspect of growth, macro
economy and institutional setup, this paper performs an econometric analysis with quarterly data
of 1992—2004, indicating that in the medium and long term, both development and general price of
real estate tend to maintain the stable upward trend. This paper then points out that the impact
of current real estate cycle on financial stability could be the risks resulting from real estate
lending exposure, government guarantees and maturity mismatch, followed by some corresponding
policy implications such as advancing banking reform, improving the behavior of local governments
and strengthening the monitor of foreign capital inflows.
Key Words:
Real Estate Cycles; Driving Factors; Financial Stability
JEL Classification:E300，E370，G180
Social Interaction, Trust, and Stock Market Participation
Li Tao
(Lingnan College at the Sun Yatsen University)
Abstract: What determines household participation in stock market? Utilizing a unique household
survey data in Guangdong Province in 2004, we find that both social interaction and trust promote
household participation in stock market, although there is some negative effect by the stock
market losers via peer group effect Social interaction exerts more significantly positive
effect on the stock market participation for households with lower education Moreover, people
with higher income, higher education, and higher age participate in the stock market more
actively Our findings provide a new policy angle, ie, social structure and social
characteristics, for stock market development Higher levels of social interaction and trust are
both necessary and important for increasing the rate of household stock market participation
Key Words:
Social Interaction； Trust； Stock Market Participation
JEL Classification:D850，G110，Z130
An Empirical Analysis on the Regional Disparity of Technical Efficiency Realized in China's
Service Industries
Gu Naihua and Li Jiangfan
(School of Business，China Center for Services Sector Research，Sun YatSen University)
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is threefold. First, to describe the regional disparity of
productivity of labor realized in China's service sector over the period 1992—2003. Secondly, to
discuss the regional disparity of technical efficiency in China's service sector and its
influence on the productivity of labor, using SFA and panel data. Thirdly, to find the factors
which affect the technical efficiency. The main results show that the regional disparity of
technical efficiency in China's service sector do exist, which is the main cause of the regional
disparity of productivity of labor. Moreover, the degree of marketization and the education of
employees appear to exert a depressive effect on technical efficiency. At last, the paper gives
some suggestions on shortening the regional development disparity of service sector.
Key Words:
Service Sector; Technical Efficiency; Regional Disparity
JEL Classification:L890, O140
The Entry of Creationary Employees and Competitive Policy
Liu Zhibiao and Chen Liu
（Center for Yantze Rive Delta's Socioeconomic Development of Nanjing University）
Abstract:
This paper tries to extend the entry issues from product market to employee market, and analyzes
the change and characters of firm's employment conduct under the risk of employee's entry. The
lower employee's entry barriers may make the firm hire less creationary employees, lowlevel
managers or even not. So the conclusion that the reducing entry barrier enhances market
performance could not exist in this paper. The meanings of competitive policy on entry can be
achieved only if interior employee's entry and exterior firm's entry are differentiated.
Key Words:
Entry of Creationary Employee; Entry Barrier; Competitive Policy
JEL Classification:J230，K210，L430
Information Technology，Organizational Innovation，and Productivity：
Evidence on the Phase Characteristics of Complementarities
Wang Miaojun，Zhang Weiying and Zhou LiAn
(School of Management,Peking University)
Abstract：
Using a large dataset collected from Zhejiang province，this paper investigates the associations
between information technology，organizational change，and firm productivity.We present strong
evidence on significant variations of complementarities among certain key components at different
phases of firm informatization.More specifically，the complemetarity between information capital
and organizational behaviors varies with the size of information investment and the depth of its
application within the firms.We also find the significant differences in complementary mechanisms
between large firms and smallmediumsized firms.These empirical findings are in stark contrast
with the wellaccepted results in existing literature focusing on the informatization process of
American and European firms.
Key Words：
Firm Informatization；Organizational Innovation；Productivity；Complementarities；Smallmedium
sized Firms
JEL Classification：L200，J230，O300
An Empirical Study of A Linkage Between Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Development
Xu Kangning and Wang Jian
(School of Economics and Management，Southeast University)
Abstract：
“Curse of Resources” is a classic hypothesis in economics，but it is not tested whether the
hypothesis still holds in different regions within a country.This paper carries out an empirical
study on such a hypothesis based on the Chinese provincial data and finds supporting evidence.The
findings reveal that the abundant natural resource is not a favorable factor of economic
development，but frustrates economic growth.Natural resource exerts harmful impacts on economic
growth through the channel of capital inputs.There is also a channel of labor inputs，but this
effect is less significant than the former.Moreover，we try to discover transmission mechanisms
of the curse through an example of Shanxi Province.From this example，we can see the decline of
manufacturing and weakness of institution caused by resources exploitation limit economic growth.
Key Words：
Natural Resource；Economic Growth；Dutch Disease；Weakness of Institution
JEL Classification：O130，O170，Q320
Ownership Concentration，Outside Blockholders，and Operating Performance：Evidence from China's
Listed Companies
Xu Lipinga，Xin Yub and Chen Gongmengc(a，b：School of Business，SYSU; c：School of
Accounting and Finance，HKPOLYU)
Abstract：
By identifying the types of blockholders，this study investigates the ownership concentration，
outside blockholders and their effects on operating performance for china's listed companies.We
find that，there is a linear，rather than a nonlinear relationship between firm performance and
ownership concentration，and the positive association holds for all groups.Therefore incentive
effect，not entrenchment effect，exists for the largest shareholders.Particularly，the positive
effect is highest in the listed companies controlled by SOEs affiliated to the central government
(SOECGs) and by private entities; is inbetween in the listed companies controlled by SOEs
affiliated to the local government (SOELGs); is lowest in the listed companies controlled by
state assetmanagement bureaus (SAMB).In the meantime，having outside blockholders is generally
associated with lower firm performance; however，the effects of various outside blockholders on
firm performance，and these effects in various types of listed companies are significantly
different.
Key Words：
Ownership Concentration; Outside Bolckholders; Ownership Structure; Operating Performance
JEL Classification：G320；G380
An Empirical Study on The Pricing of Block Shares in China
Xu Xinzhonga,Huang Zhangkaib,Liu Yinc,and Xue Tongd
(a,b,c:Guanghua School of Management,Peking University)
(d:Beijing International Studies University)
Abstract： Unlike in other countries, negotiated block shares have a huge discount in China. We
explain the puzzle by the tradeoff between liquidity and control of block shares. While the
size of the block increases the probability of gaining control, it also imposes liquidity
constraints on the owner. The joint effects of private benefit of control and liquidity
constraints have offsetting impact on the pricing of block shares: the first adds a premium and
the latter adds a discount. We quantify this tradeoff in the highly illiquid capital market of
China, where block shares have severe trading restrictions. We find block share prices increase
with block size, but decrease with the proportion of restricted shares in the ownership.
Key Words：
Block Share; Pricing; Control Gaining; Liquidity Constraints
JEL Classification：G300, G120
Calculation and Decomposition of the Overall Gini Coefficient in Dual Economies
Cheng Yonghong
(Institute of Social Security, School of Public Administration, Renmin University of China)
Abstract： The calculating methods of Gini Coefficient have been very abundant, but it has not
been settled that how to calculate the overall Gini Coefficient including city and country in
dual economies, which blocks deeply researches in the countrywide income distribution. This paper
sets up a new calculating method of the overall Gini Coefficient, and gives a new decomposition
method of the overall Gini Coefficient. Moreover, we put forward and reason a new index about the
disparity between the rural and the urban.Then, we analyzed some theoretical questions by use of
the new decomposition method. At last, we calculated and decomposed the overall Gini Coefficient
of individual year in China to test the validity of the new method.
Key Words：
the Overall Gini Coefficient Including City and Country；Decomposition of the Overall Gini
Coefficient；Relative Index of Disparity Between City and Country
JEL Classification：D630, D300
|
北京超星佳业公司技术支持