CONTENTS
The Synthetic Evaluation and Analysis on Regional Industrialization
····················Chen Jiagui, Huang Qunhui and Zhong Hongwu (4)
Tax Competition, Region Game and Their Efficiency of Growth
···························· Shen Kunrong and Fu Wenlin (16)
Export Openness, Regional Market Size and Economic Growth
···························· Huang Jiuli and Li Kunwang (27)
Industry Growth and FDI Intraindustry Spillover in China
···························· Chen Taotao and Chen Jiao (39)
Portfolio Choice, Risk Preference and the Demand for Savings Deposit
·························· Wang Hongju and Zhang Huilian (48)
An Insight into the High Level of China's Monetarization
···································· Zhang Jie (59)
The Efficiency Based on Optimal Export Policy Under Incomplete Information and T
hreat of Antidumping
·····························Peng Lizhi and Wang Ling (70)
Interlinking Markets, Relational Contract and Economic Transition
···································Wang Yongqin (79)
Dynamic Evaluation of Main Sea Ports in Mainland China Based on DEA Model
··································· Pang Ruizhi (92)
Value of Innovation, Asymmetric Information and Tenure in Academics
···································· Chen Zhao (101)
The Impacts of Growth and Inequality on Poverty Dynamics in China
····························Wan Guanghua and Zhang Yin (112)
New Development of Law and Economics in China:
A Summary for the 4th Workshop of China's Law and Economics
·····························Shi Jinchuan and Zhu Hui (124)
The Synthetic Evaluation and Analysis on Regional Industrialization
Chen Jiagui, Huang Qunhui and Zhong Hongwu
(Institute of Industrial Economics, CASS)
Abstract:
The evaluation on regional industrialization is critical to catch on the core of “ China's experience" In terms of economy development, industrial structure, inner structure of industry, employment structure and urbanization, the authors give a synthetic evaluation on industrialization level of 31 Provinces. Based on the classical theory of industrialization, the authors select the index and relevant benchmark of the Synthetic Evaluation system, the weights of which being determined by hierarchy analysis, and use the data of China Economic Census to estimate the industrialization level of 31 Provinces, which is verified by Principal Component Analysis. The basic conclusion of this article is that the structure of regional industrialization is like a Pyramid in 2004, from 1995 to 2004, though industrialization of most provinces is accelerating, the gap between advanced regions and lagged regions is widening, since 2000, the upgrade of the inner structure of industry has become the key growth driver instead of the upgrade of the industrial structure.
Key Words:
Industrialization in Region; Index System; Synthetic Evaluation
JEL Classification:O120,O140,O190
Tax Competition, Region Game and Their Efficiency of Growth
Shen Kunrong & Fu Wenlin
(School of Business，Nanjing University)
Abstract:
The reform of Chinese fiscal decentralization inspired the local governments' enthusiasm of developing the region's economy. But the unapt decentralization also intensifies the tax competition among regions. This paper analyzes the tax competition among provinces using a basic spatial lag econometric model. A negative reaction function slope indicates the presence of different tax competition strategies in the choices of local governments, and the preferences of some local governments for public goods are rather low. While the Granger causality test between tax competition and economic growth shows that the public expenditure makes a positive effect to economic growth, and the efforts of levy tax of local governments are adaptive behaviors to theirs fiscal status. Finally, the authors propose that the central government should construct a public expenditure equalization system of regions.
Key Words:
Tax Competition; Strategetic Behavior; Efficiency of Growth
JEL Classification:C230, E620, H770
Export Openness, Regional Market Size and Economic Growth
Huang Jiuli and Li Kunwang
（Nankai University）
Abstract:
Increasing return causes international or regional economic divergence, and the extent of the market in turn determines the scope of increasing returns. This paper finds that, regional market size and export openness jointly shape the growth rates of income per capita in China's provinces from 1970 to 2000. They also show empirically the relationship of substitution during the dynamics of China's regional disparity. Another interesting finding is that convergence across provinces can be achieved significantly once the factor of extent of market is controlled. By constructing instrument variable in term of the geographic characteristics, we efficiently tackle the problem of endogeneity in the regressions.
Key Words:
Market Size; Regional Disparity; Increasing Return; Convergence
JEL Classification:R110, F430, O470, O530
Industry Growth and FDI Intraindustry Spillover in China
Chen Taotaoa and Chen Jiaob
(a,b:School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University; a:Center for China in the World Economy,Tsinghua University)
Abstract：
Basing on 4 digital industry data of 320 manufacturing sectors from 2000 to 2002, the article discusses the impacts of industry growth on FDI intraindustry spillover in China. The test shows that industry growth is truly one of the most important factors that can influence FDI spillover in China. And the way of the influence also depends on the extent of local firms' exportorientation.
Key Words： Foreign Direct Investment; IntraIndustry Spillover; Industry Growth
JEL Classification：C520, F210, F230, O300
Portfolio Choice, Risk Preference and the Demand for Savings Deposit
Wang Hongju and Zhang Huilian
(Institute of Economics, CASS) (Economics and Management School, Beijing University of Technology)
Abstract：
On the basis of partial equilibrium, an asset portfolio model is provided to analyze the impact of interest rate, inflation, the volatility of stock market return and consumer's risk preference on the demand for savings deposit. From June 2001 on, the inflation and the variation of CPI came down, the return of stock market and its variation declined as well while the index of stock market dropped off; however, the demand for money (including savings deposit) has seen an accelerating trend of growth. According to various index of relative risk aversion, simulation results are provided to clarify the impact on the average demand for money between July 2001 and September 2005 of such factors as interest rate, inflation, the return of stock market and the volatility of stock market. Nearly 30% of the increase savings deposit could be explained by these factors corresponding to a reasonable value of relative risk aversion. If the scale variable such as GDP were not considered, the decreasing return of stock market is the dominant factor to explain the accelerating growth demand for money in the specified sample.
Key Words：
Inflation; Return of Stock Market; Volatility of Stock Market; Risk Preference
JEL Classification：E300, Z130, E313
An Insight into the High Level of China's Monetarization
Zhang Jie
(School of Finance, Renming University of China)
Abstract：
The paper intends to provide a new perspective of understanding the high level of monetarization in China's economy. The majority of literature tends to agree with the hypothesis proposed by Goldsmith, viz, monetarization path. Actually, the pattern of “inverted U” applies even in the long term. Where the challenge lies is with the significant gap. By introducing government's subsidy and guarantee into Mckinnon's model of optimal monetarization, the paper finds that government's control over banking system constitutes the basic explanation of the high level. With the help of BaileyCagan, the paper further finds that, given the control of government, the endogenous money expansion has a budget restraint and a welfare effect different from those of exdogenous expansion. Conclusion is that the high level phenomenon should be properly evaluated. The reasonable reaction is to readjust the interlocking benefit mechanism concerning government, bank and household so that the present budget restraint of money demand and the driving force behind monetarization can make changes.
Key Words：
Monetarization Path; Monetarization Gap; Optimal Monetarization; Banking System; Endogenous Money Expansion
JEL Classification：E410, E510, O160, P340
The Efficiency Based on Optimal Export Policy Under Incomplete
Information and Threat of Antidumping
Peng Lizhi and Wang Ling
(Dagong Globle Credit Rating Co.,Ltd.;Economic Institute,Fudan University)
Abstract:
Based on the basic model of Brander and Spencer（1985）, the paper first shows, under the threat of antidumping, optimal export policy based on complete information conjecture requires the export country give the more efficient export firms higher subsidies or lower export tariff, which will inevitably induce the export firms to hide their real cost, thus, under nonincentivecompatibles mechanism, optimal export policy based on complete information conjecture failed. Then, the paper further shows, incentivecompatible optimal export policy under antidumping threat and incomplete information requires that the export country adopt different combined policy with export tariff and lumpsum subsidy according to the import country's protecting pressure from its domestic firms, so that the policy could induce the export firms reveal their real cost and maximize the country's welfare.
Key Words:
Antidumping Threat；Incomplete Information；Optimal Export Policy
JEL Classification:F12，F13
Interlinking Markets, Relational Contract and Economic Transition
Wang Yongqin
(China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University)
Abstract:
This paper extends the basic onemarket relational contract to the interlinked one and characterizes the interactions between the degree of the social division of labor (extent of the market) and the modes of economic governance. A basic conclusion is that the dominant contractual form or governance is a function of the extent of the market. The less the extent of the market, the more important is the relational contract and vice versa. From this perspective, the transition from a central planning economy to the market economy is a process of more formal contracts substituting relational contracts. Chinesestyle gradualism succeeded to the extent that the original selfenforcing relational contracts are still sustainable, while the Russianstyle radical reforms rendered the original selfenforcing relational contracts unsustainable and led to governance failure. This paper also sheds some light on the China paradox that China obtained miraculous economic growth despite her lack of the efficient formal legal system and other formal institutional arrangements, i.e., because of the selfenforcing nature of the relational contracts formal institutional arrangements are not needed. In general, this paper provides a theoretical support for the socalled “PostWashington Consensus" and characterizes the underlying microeconomic dynamics.
Key Words:
Relational Contract； Interlinking Markets； Economic Transition
JEL Classification:D820，P510
Dynamic Evaluation of Main Sea Ports in Mainland China Based on DEA Model
Pang Ruizhi
(Institute of Industry Economics, Nankai University)
Abstract:
The paper analyzes and evaluates 50 sea ports with data envelopment analysis on the whole. In addition, it evaluates the changes of efficiency of these sea ports. The result shows that serious input crowding and resources waste exist in our sea ports；the economic efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of different areas of sea ports are different.The pure technical efficiency of these sea ports is decreasing. This implicates that the efficiency of sea ports can only be increased by integrating all these ports resources and avoiding the trend of enlarging the infrastructures of sea ports unrealistically on the one hand, and harmonizing the ports system and the other relevant systems.
Key Words:
Data Envelopment Analysis；Sea Ports；Dynamic Efficiency Evaluation
JEL Classification:D240，L890
Value of Innovation, Asymmetric Information and Tenure in Academics
Chen Zhao
（China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University）
Abstract:
In this paper, tenure in academics is a kind of contract, which encourages innovation under asymmetric information. We argue that in some situations, “uporout” contract might help the principal save information rent and thus would be more efficient when both the type and action of agent are unobservable. I find that the emerging and existence of tenure in academic relate to the rising of importance and difficulty of innovation in academics. That is to say, whether tenure system should be implemented in China depends on how valuable the innovation is in academics at current stage. This paper not only provides some new explanation for tenure system in theory but also discusses about the condition or timing for the implementation of tenure in academics in China.
Key Words:
Tenure System; Symmetric Information; Efficiency;“Uporout”
JEL Classification:D820,I200
The Impacts of Growth and Inequality on Poverty Dynamics in China
Wan Guanghua & Zhang Yin
(College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University;World Institute for Development Economics Research)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the evolution of poverty in China from the late 1980s to the late 1990s, employing a version of Shapley decomposition tailored to unitrecord household survey data. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causesincome growth and shifts in relative income distribution. Different datasets, alternative poverty lines, poverty measures and equivalence scales are used to examine the robustness of the results. Despite some ambiguities in the results, it is consistently found that reduction in rural poverty occurred in the early 1990s, owing to both income growth and improved distribution. However, in the second half of 1990s, poverty reduction slowed down and even reversed occasionally, and adverse distributional changes are the main cause.
Key Words:
Poverty; Shapley Decomposition; Income Inequality
JEL Classification:O150,O530
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