CONTENTS
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate Changes
·······························Lu Feng and Han Xiaoya (4)
An Empirical Study on the Economic Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Misalignment
of RMB
······························ Wu Lihua and Wang Feng (15)
The Effects of Government Public Capital Investment on LongRun Economic Growth
····························· Guo Qingwang and JiaJunxue (29)
IMeasuring China's Business Cycles
····································· Dong Jin (41)
Does Privatization Work in China
······················ Yifan Hu, Frank M.Song and Junxi Zhang (49)
Analysis on Efficiency of Chinese State
\|owned Enterprises Restructuring to Corporations
···································· Hao Daming (61)
Change of Rural Institution and Agricultural Economic Growth:
An Empirical Analysis on Agricultural Economic Growth in China(1978—2004)
·························Qiao Zhen, Jiao Fangyi and Li Nan (73)
Collective Ownership of Rural Land:Tenure or PrincipalAgent Problem
····································Chen Jianbo (83)
Using Data Envelopment Analysis Approach to Estimate the Health Production Effic
iencies in China
······················Zhang Ning, Hu Angang and Zheng Jinghai (92)
Analysis on the Trend of Regional Income Disparity in China
··························· Xu Zhaoyuan and Li Shantong (106)
Multiscale Analysis on China's Regional Economical Diversity and Reasons
····················· Guan Weihua,Lin Zhenshan and Gu Chaolin (117)
Anniversary of the Death of Mr.Xu Xuehan
··························· Zhang Zhuoyuan and Han Meng (126)
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate Changes
Lu Feng, Han Xiaoya
(China Center for Economic Reseasrch at Peking University)
Abstract：
The BalassaSamuelson effects hypothesis provides a starting model for analysis
of the relationship between long run economic growth and trend change in the real
exchange rate for a country. On the basis of introducing the model and review
of the relevant literatures, the paper examines the empirical evidences regarding
the hypothesis using multicountry crosssectional data and time series data.
It also discusses the implications of the model for assessing the relationship
between Chinas economic development and changes in RMBs real exchange rate.
Key Words： Real Exchange Rate； Economic Growth； The Balassa
Samuelson Effects
JEL Classification：F310, F430, F020
An Empirical Study on the Economic Effects of
the Real Exchange Rate Misalignment of RMB
Wu Lihua〓Wang Feng
(Department of Finance, Institute of Economics, Xiamen University)
Abstract：
Using the behavior equilibrium exchange rate model and the cointegrati
on theory to calculate the quarterly state of the real exchange rate misalignment
of RMB from 1984—2004, the result shows that the real exchange rate of RMB
experienced three stages undervaluation and two stages overvaluation during
this period. By analyzing the growth rates of the Chinese main internal and external
economic indicators in 21 years as well as studying the economic effects of
the real exchange rate misalignment of RMB in various stages, it can be found
that the serious misalignment significantly influenced the external economic varia
bles but the small misalignment did not harm the economy. The economic system could
automatically adjust itself. In addition, the misalignment can explain the
growth of the external economic variables very well. Reversely, this verified that
the calculation to the real exchange rate misalignment of RMB is precise. On the
base of constructing econometric models to study the economic effects of the
misalignment, the results shows that the misalignment produced significantly negative
effects to export and import.
Key Words： Real Exchange Rate; Exchange Rate Misalignment; Econ
omic Effect
JEL Classification：F310，F360
The Effects of Government Public Capital Investment
on LongRun Economic Growth
Guo Qingwang〓Jia Junxue
(China Financial Policy Research Center； Renmin University of China)
Abstract：
This paper analyzes the mechanics of government public capital investm
ent on longrun economic growth by setting up a twosector endogenous growth
model containing government public capital investment and dividing public capital
investment to government physical capital investment and human capital investment
.
The theoretical analysis suggests both forms of government public capital investment
may have positive or negative effects on longrun economic growth depending on the
size of private agents intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption. On the
other hand, We use VAR approach to analyze the effects of government public capital
investment on longrun economic growth based on annual data
for the period from 1978 to 2004 in China. The positive analysis suggests that there
are longrun equilibrium relations among both forms of government public capital
investment and economic growth, while government physical capital investment have
significant positive effects on longrun economic growth, government human capital
investment have relative smaller positive effects on longrun economic growth and
have negative effects on economic growth in short term, which has significant
implications for macroeconomic policy and public capital investment fields selecting
in China.
Key Words： Government Physical Capital Investment; Government Human Capital Investment;
LongRun Economic Growth
JEL Classification：E600，O110，P200
Measuring China's Business Cycles
Dong Jin
（School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University）
Abstract:
At present, there are a great deal of controversies over the macroeconomic
fluctuations of China, and generally speaking, those papers are all based on
the data available before the census on China's economy in 2005, which will
definitely bring about some negative influence to the result of theinvestigation.
In order to analyze the contributing factors of the macroeconomic fluctuations of
China more precisely, in the first place, we define the beginning and ending
periods of each. And this paper has made a comparison between the four methods,
which are currently considered to be mature in international community, namely,
Linear Trend Method, HP Filter, BandPass Filter and Production Functions Method.
These methods are used to analyze the data during theperiod from 1952—2005.
Besides, the paper has used the data after the 2005 census on China's economy,
and estimated respectively the beginning and ending periods of the business
cycles occurred after the reform and opening tothe outside world. Through analyzing
the advantages and existing problems of the four methods respectively and verifying
each other, the author finally managesto figure out the beginning and ending periods
of each macroeconomic fluctuation in previous occasions in China, which will make a
necessary foundation for further analyzing the contributing factors of each
macroeconomic fluctuation.
Key Words:
Business Cycle; Linear Trend Method; HP Filter; BandPass Filter; Pr
oduction Functions Method
JEL Classification:
E320, C130, C320
Does Privatization Work in China
Yifan Hua, Frank M. Songa and Junxi Zhangb
(a Facutly of Business and Economics,University of Hong Kong; b Facutly
of Business and Economics,University of Hong Kong and Central University
of Finance and Economics,School of China Financial Development)
Abstract:
Does privatization work If so, how does it work We seek here to provide empirical
answers to these two questions by considering the Chinese privatization experience.
Using a detailed World Bank survey of 299 Chinese stateowned enterprises (SOEs)
across six sectors and five cities from 1996 to 2001, we found that: (1) there is
clear evidence that betterperforming SOEs were chosen to be privatized first;
(2) privatization in general works in China, significantly improving sales revenue
and lowering the costs of the privatized firms and resulting in large gains in
profitability and productivity, while not at the expense of massive unemployment;
(3) fullyprivatized firms with controlling private shares perform better than
partiallyprivatized firms where the state remains a dominant owner; and (4)
privatelycontrolled firms focus on product restructuring, while state
controlled firms on direct costreducing means and debt restructuring. Cost
restructuring seems to work better for statecontrolled firms while debt restructuring
works better for privatelycontrolled firms.
Key Words:Restructuring; Privatization; Corporate Performance
JEL Classification:P200, O400, O500
Analysis on Efficiency of Chinese State\|owned Enterprises Restructuring
to Corporations
Hao Daming
(School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics andBusiness)
Abstract:
Using the results on the second basic units census of Shandong province and the
production function model，this paper compares efficiency evolution of various
corporations restructured from SOEs and finds that the effiency of restructured
corporations is higher than SOEs while the degree of improvement varies distinctly
among them.Further analysis finds that the change of ownership type is themajor
driving factor for the improvement of efficiency.Change to the two determinant
factors of ownership——capital structure and nature of owner——influences
the effiency apparently.This paper concludes that the key to improving the efficiency
of SOEs is to turn them into independent businesses,which requires reducing the weigh
of state\|owned capital in the firms.
Key Words:
Restructuring towards Corporation； Efficiency；SOEs
JEL Classification:D230，O470，P310
Change of Rural Institution and Agricultural Economic Growth:
An Empirical Analysis on Agricultural Economic
Growth in China(1978—2004)
Qiao Zhen1, Jiao Fangyi1 and Li Nan2
(1. School of Economics and Management, Heilongjiang University；
2. Development Research Center of Heilongjiang Provincial Government)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the process of agricultural economic growth from 1978 to 200
4. The finding of our research indicates that the different institutions
of land create different incentive to the persons who engage in the agriculture
. At the same time, the change of benefit space is caused by the movementof
priceand finical impacts on the activity of farmers. Hence, the change of institution
plays an important role in the agricultural economic growth after China's reform
and opening. This paper examines the change of land institution, price system and
the finical and taxation institution, which impact on the agricultural economic
growth, in different phases from 1978 to 2004 in the econometric and statistic methods.
The survey shows that the change of institution has greatly contributed to the
development of agriculture. According to our research, we should take
the innovation of rural institution as the main way which to realize the agricultural
economic growth.
Key Words:Country; Change of Institution; Agricultural Economic
Growth
JEL Classification:
Q190，R110
Collective Ownership of Rural Land：Tenure or PrincipalAgent Problem
Chen Jianbo
(Department of Rural Economy, Development Research Center of State Council)
Abstract:
Villager council as the unique legitimate and formal institution arrangement
takes three functions conflicting: the agent of local government, agent of
collective ownership and governor of village community. The multifunctions
conflicting each other that villager council has taken are bringing various
doubtsand blame on rural fundamental institutional arrangementHousehold
Responsibility System under collective ownership. This article discussed the
relationship among functions of land, conflicting three roles of villager council
and collectiv e ownership. It raised the issue of governing structure of collective
ownership.The paper conclude that collective ownership of land is the important
precondition for land equally distribution to community member, and averagely
distribution of land is the fundamental institution design to ensure everyone
can labor forbread. When social insurance mechanism is imperfect and the
institutional framework of collective ownership is unchangeable in short term,
governing structure of collective ownership is becoming a new problem for rural
reform and development while farming economy is transforming from traditional small
farmer into parttime farmer.
Key Words:
Land Collective Ownership; Governing Structure; Function of Villager Council;
Function of Land; Conflict of PrincipalAgent
JEL Classification:
Q150, P320, B520
Using Data Envelopment Analysis Approach to Estimate the Health Production
Efficiencies in China
Zhang Ning1, Hu Angang1, Zheng Jinghai1, 2
(1: Center for China Study, Tsinghua University; 2: Department of Economics,
Goteborg University)
Abstract:
By using Data Envelopment Analysis approach, we treat the health production
system in a certain province as a Decision Making Unit (DMU), identify itsinputs
and outputs, evaluate its technical efficiency in 1982, 1990 and 2000 respectively,
and further analyze the relationship between efficiency scores and social
environmental variables. This paper has several interesting findings. Firstly,
provinces on frontier in different year are different, but provincesfar from
the frontier keep unchanged. The average efficiency of health production has
made a significant progress from 1982 to 2000. Secondly, all provinces in
China can be divided into six categories in terms of health production outcome
and efficiency, and each category has specific approach of improving health
production efficiency. Thirdly, significant differences in health production
efficiencies have been found among the eastern, central and western regions in
China, and among the eastern and central regions. At last, there is significant
positiverelationship between population density and health production efficiency
but negative relationship (not very significant) between the proportions of
public healthexpenditure in total expense and efficiency. Maybe it is the result
of inappropriate tendency of public expenditure. The relationship between abilities
to payfor health care services and efficiency in urban areas is opposite to that in
rural areas. One possible reason is the totally different income and public services
treatments between rural and urban residents. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust
health policies and service provisions which are specifically designed todifferent
population groups.
Key Words:
Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA); Health Production; Efficiency
JEL Classification:
C520, C140, I120
Analysis on the Trend of Regional Income Disparity in China
Xu Zhaoyuan & Li Shantong(Guanghua School of Management, Peking University;
Department of Development Strategy & Regional Economy, Development Research
Center of the State Council)
Abstract:
In this paper, we find that after the long period of continuously increasing
of regional income disparity, the pace of regional income disparity widen has
been slowed down step by step after 2000. By examining the economic convergence
and regional growth in the period of 1990—2004, we find that there is an evidence
of conditional convergence, and there are some factors contributed to the
development of regional economic growth. Then we decomposed the regional growth
rate to find out the contribution of each factor to the development of regional
income disparity.
Key Words:Regional Disparity; Conditional Convergence; Economic Growth
JEL Classification:R110，O110，C330，E220
MultiScale Analysis on China's
Regional Economical Diversity and Reasons
Guan Weihuaa， Lin Zhenshanb and Gu Chaolina Wu Li, Zhou Jianbo and Gao Qian
(a:Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Nanjing University;
b:College of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Normal University)
Abstract:
Based on the empirical mode decomposition, this paper analyses the regional
economical diversity (RED) in China from 1953 to 2002, and primarily discusses
the cause resulting in RED with different scale on the view of production factor.
The results of the research show that RED fluctuation in China takes 60year
scale, 17.5year scale and trend as the principal part. RED enlargement in these
major scales will lead to the government attention. Whenanalyzing the mutual
relationship between factor investment discrepancy and RED, we should recognize
the regional discrepancy resulted from factor investment discrepancy and the change
of factor investment discrepancy resulted from environment discrepancy of factor
investment, and should pay more attention to the longterm effect by employed
persons and investment discrepancy.
When formulating the regional policies, the shortterm and longterm RED should
be taken into account from the point of view of discrepancy fluctuation among the
regions.
Key Words:
Regional Economical Discrepancy; Empirical Mode Decomposition; Weighted Variation
Coefficient
JEL Classification:R110
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