CONTENTS
An Empirical Study on the Effects of Ownership Reform in China
······················Bai Chong\|En, Lu Jiangyong, Tao Zhigang (4)
A Theoretical and Empirical Study on What Affect Consideration RatioFor Split Share
StructureReform of Listed Companies in China
······· Wu Chaopeng，Zheng Fangbiao，Lin Zhouyong，Li Wenqiang and WuShinong (14)
The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and The Flourishing of Central Bank Transparency
······································Xu Yaping (24)
Nonlinear Transition between Inflation Expansion and Deflation in China
··························Wang Shaoping and Peng Fangping (35)
Social Interaction and Investment Choice
······································ Li Tao (45)
Psychological Experimental Study on Hothand Effect and Gambler's Fallacy
·····················Lin Shu, Yu Qiao, Tang Zhengyu, Zhou Jian (58)
Analyzing the Foreign Trade Structure Based on Technologies of Trade Goods
·······················Fan Gang, Chi Hung Kwan and Yao Zhizhong(70)
Research on the Economic Environment and Policies of China inAttracting International
Outsourcing
······························Wang Aihu and Zhong Yuchen(81)
Estimating and Decomposing the Contribution of Technical Change in China
······················Xu Ying, Chen Xiushan and Liu Fengliang (93)
New Explanations and Test to Sen's Entitlements: Evidence from China
··························· Fan Ziying and Meng Lingjie (104)
Creative Destruction and Oscillating Enlarge of Income Inequality
·························Zhong Chunping and Xu Changsheng (114)
Exploration on Issues of Income Distribution and Economic Development in Transition
A Summary for the Workshop of Development, Transition and Income Distribution
··························· Jiao Fangyi and Liu Wenyong (124)
An Empirical Study on the Effects of Ownership Reform in China
Bai ChongEna,Lu Jiangyongb, Tao Zhigangc(a,b: Tsinghua University;
c:Faculty of Business and Economics, The Universityof Hong Kong)
Abstract:Using a comprehensive panel data set of China's stateowned
enterprises, we investigate the impacts of ownership reform and different
extent of nonstate ownership on social welfare and firm performance. Wealso
consider the sources of the gain in firm performance and the longrun impacts
of ownership reform. It is found that ownership reform improves firm performance
mainly through reducing managerial expenses, and the social costs of ownership
reform are limited compared to international experiences.
Key Words:Privatization；Performance； Social Welfare
JEL Classification:D240, O470, P310
A Theoretical and Empirical Study on What Affect Consideration Ratio
For Split Share Structure Reform of Listed Companies in China
Wu Chaopeng，Zheng Fangbiao，Lin Zhouyong，Li Wenqiang and Wu Shinong
（Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics；Management School of Xiamen
University）
Abstract:
Whether the split share structure reform of listed companies can succeed
is very important for future development of security market in China. This
paper develops theoretical hypotheses based on financial literature and China's
reality to test what affect consideration ratio between nontradable shareholders
and tradable shareholders by sample 330 listed companies, which have conducted the
reform. These results suggest that the game mechanism adopted in the reform generally
could ensure the rationality of reform projects and protect both shareholders, but
the institutional investors have not put up their bargaining abilityin the reform.
Key Words:
Consideration Ratio; Private Benefits of Control; PricePressure Hypothesis;
Investor Protection
JEL Classification:G320, G380
The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and The Flourishing
of Central Bank Transparency
Xu Yaping
(Economic School，Anhui University)
Abstract:
This paper explores the effect of central bank transparency on the effectiveness
of monetary policy, and shows that one key factor behind the move toincrease
transparency on the part of central banks is the relationship betweentransparency
and the effectiveness of monetary policy. According to the theory of “time
inconsistency", transparency in monetary policy has nothing to do withthe
effectiveness of monetary policy because public has perfect knowledge about economy.
But when the private sector faces uncertainty about the economy, the central bank
transparency plays a crucial role in stabilizing and guiding the agents' learning
process and expectations, and then improves the effectiveness of monetary policy
greatly.
Key Words:Imperfect Knowledge; Expectations; Expectation Guiding
; Transparency in Monetary Policy; Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
JEL Classification:
E52, E58, E59
Nonlinear Transition between Inflation Expansion
and Deflation in China
Wang Shaoping and Peng Fangping
(School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology)
Abstract:
This paper applies the ESTAR model to conduct an empirical study for Chinese
inflation. The results show that there is nonlinear exponential transition
between the inflation and deflation, and the transition location takes place
in lagged two periods and adjustment speed is quick and significant; furthermorethe
middle value of the inflation and deflation is 3.3%. Based on above resultsand
Chinese background, this paper also describes dynamic cyclical behavior of the
inflation. The conclusions imply that the macroeconomic policies of China aregenerally
efficient.
Key Words:ESTAR; Nonlinear Adjustment; Inflation; Deflation
JEL Classification:
C220，C440，E320，E320
Social Interaction and Investment Choice
Li Tao
(Lingnan College at the Sun Yatsen University)
Abstract:
Does social interaction affect individual investment choice If so, what are
themechanisms Based on a individual investor survey in 12 cities in China in 2005,
we find that overall social interaction promotes individual investors' participation
in saving, foreign exchange, stock, bond, futures, mutual fund, lending,business,
insurance, collection, real estate, wealthmanaging product, and lottery, behind
which is the social norm mechanism of social interaction. By investing in the same
project as those currently chosen by most of his peer group members, an individual
follows the social norm held by his peer members. Moreover, communication and social
learning mechanisms of endogenous social interaction increase individual investors'
current and future expected investment in insurance and bond respectively, while
contextual social interaction reduces his future expected investment in stock.
Our research provides a new policy angle of social interaction for China's economic
reform and development. Improving social interaction, matching policies with social
norms in the short term, and cultivating suitable social norms in the long term
should be all taken into consideration by thegovernment.
Key Words:Social Interaction; Investment Choice
JEL Code:D85, G11, Z13
Psychological Experimental Study on Hothand Effect and Gambler's Fallacy
Lin Shua, Yu Qiaob, Tang Zhengyuc, Zhou Jiand
(a:Sydney Institute of Language and Commerce,Shanghai University)
(b: School of Public Policy & Management,Tsinghua University)
(c,d:School of Management, Fudan University)
Abstract:
With psychological experiments, we found that whenever stock price goes up or
goes down continuously, gambler's fallacy will dominate hothand effect in
investor's information process to serial changing stock price. When stock price
goes up continuously, the longer the price up, the larger is the probability that
investor think the price will drop down in next period, and the tendency to sell
itgets more evident. On the other hand, when stock price drops down continuously,
the longer the price down, the larger is the probability that investor think
theprice will go up in next period, and the tendency to buy it became larger.
Theseresults suggest that at least psychological factor exists in the individual
investor that hope the market will reverse to bullish in today's bearish
Chinesestock market. Disposition effect is also found in the experiments, which
is more evident in female investor than in male investor and more evident in the
investorwith low level investment knowledge and less experience than those with
higher level. Experiments also indicate that Chinese investors like short
term investing which is much shorter than one year.
Key Words:Hothand Effect; Gambler's Fallacy; Psychological Experiment;
Disposition Effect
JEL Classification:G190,C910
Analyzing the Foreign Trade Structure Based on
Technologies of Traded Goods
Fan Gang, Chi Hung Kwan and Yao Zhizhong
(National Economic Research Institute,China Reform Foundation;
\=
Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research,Japan;
Institute of World Economics and Politics,CASS)
Abstract:
International trade theory found that technology played important parts in
determining foreign trade structure.The difficulty is,however,how to identify the
differences between technologies of traded goods,how to map the technological
distribution of traded goods and how to analyze trade patterns based on differences
of technological advances among trading partner countries.This paper attempts
toprovide a method of analyzing trade structure based on technological distribution
of traded goods that is built on the Principle of Revealed Value\|added by
Technology.Based on this method,we try to establish Competitiveness\|Complementarities
Index for trade,the Competitive Stress Index,the Curve of Technology and
theclassification for high\|tech and low\|tech traded goods.In addition,this
paperanalyzes the China's trade structure in the context of moving to regional
freetrade agreement(FTA).
Key Words:
Foreign Trade Structure; Value\|added of Technology; Technological Distribution
of Traded Goods
JEL Classification:
C81,F13,F14,F17
Research on the Economic Environment and Policies of China
in Attracting International Outsourcing
Wang Aihu and Zhong Yuchen
(Department of Management Science and Engineering, Institute of Emerging
Industrialization Development/School
of Business Administration, South China University of Technology)
Abstract:
The total international outsourcing volume in China is first estimated
. Then the influential factors of international outsourcing are identified with
their degrees of contribution calculated through multiple regressions. Based on
the identified major influential factors, an outsourcing attracting environment
evaluation framework is established which is used to quantitatively analyze the
economic environment of China. Further investigation of the trends and
rankingsindicat
es the development trends of transnational corporations' outsourcing practice in
nine provinces or cities of the three economic regions in China.
Research results and suggestions can be used as references for appropriate
government departments in making corresponding decisions.
Key Words:
Transnational Corporations; Outsourcing; Economic Environment;
Policies.
JEL Classification:F130,F160,F180
Estimating and Decomposing the Contribution of Technical Change in China
Xu Ying,Chen Xiushan and Liu Fengliang
(Renmin University of China)
Abstract：
After analyzing the disadvantage of Solows Residual Method,this paper
constructs a new model to estimate and decompose the contribution of technicalchange
in China on the basis of the new growth theories.In order to estimate the
contribution of technical change more precisely,this paper integrates thre
enew factors into the new model,including industries structure,captital aggregating,
and human capital.With this new model,this paper analyses the technical
change in China from 1987 to 2003,and finds that the contribution of technical
change in China is growing steadily.
Key Words： Technical Change；Solows Residual Method；Capital
Spatial Aggregation
JEL Classification：O470，O150,R120
New Explanations and Test to Sens Entitlements: Evidence from China
Fan Ziying〓Meng Lingjie
(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University)
Abstract：
This paper on Sens food entitlement theory and the traditional theory
to explain famine with food supply declined (Food Availability DeclineFAD) positioning
that both are the real cause of famine,but FAD could not explain the
distribution of famine.On the base of urban bias by Lin Yifu and Yangtao(2000),
the paper indicates that the real causes of famine distribution are the food
deficit areas,and the distribution has class nature. The priorities of their entit
lements to food is subjected to the direct impact of famine.
Key Words： Famine;Food Entitlement;FAD;Fooddeficit Areas
JEL Classification：I300,I320,I390，
Creative Destruction and Oscillating Enlarge of Income Inequality
Zhong Chunping and Xu Changsheng
(School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology)
Abstract:
Joseph Schumpter's Innovation and Creative Destruction are used to explain
dynamic feature of income inequality enlarge in oscillation. Income inequality
will be larger during economic growth through creative destruction. The higher
the degree of creative destruction, the faster the economic growth and the larger
of income inequality would be. This paper analyzes the social foundations of
this process, and believes that the social ladder and specification will enlarge
during growth. In methodologies, the physical model describes enlarging process,
and the limits of the tools based on steadystate are discovered. It showsthat
the process is in oscillation, not solely increasing. This feature is determined
by the interactions among individuals and dynamic competition of technical
innovations——Creative Destruction. The empirical evidence based on US family
wages proves that the income inequality will enlarge in oscillation during the
dynamic process.
Key Words:
Creative Destruction; Income Inequality; Oscillating Enlarging
JEL Classification:
O12, O33
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