Analysis on the China's Policy Adjustments of Foreign Trade and the Changes ª¥

of Export Structure  2006¡ª2008¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­...............¡­ ¡­..Pei  Changhongª« (ª©4ªª)

Exchange Rate Passª²through£ºThe Case of China

.................................................................................Wang Jinbin   and  Li Nanª« (ª©17ªª)

Do Environmental Regulations Influence the Competitiveness of  Pollutionª²intensive Products?..........................................................................................................Lu Yangª« (ª©28ªª)

Energy Consumption, COª­2 Emission and Sustainable Development in Chinese Industryª¥

   .........................................................Chen Shiyiª« (ª©41ªª)

International Comparative Analysis of the Convergence and Economic Mechanism of China's Economic ª¥Growth and Energy Intensity

   ª«.....................................Qi Shaozhou, Yun Bo and Li Kaiª« (ª©56ªª)

Trendª²cycle Decomposition and Stochastic Impact Effect of Chinese GDPª¥

   ¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­.................ª«Wang Shaoping and Hu Jinª« (ª©65ªª)

Measurement of Technology Spillovers

.................................................................................Shen Kunrong and Li Jianª« (ª©77ªª)

Family Authority and Familyª²Owned Firm Value: An Empirical Study in Chinaª¥

   ¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­.........ª«He Xiaogang and Lian Yanlingª« (ª©90ªª)

Risk Management Options for Health Care in Rural China

   ¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­.................ª«Feng Jin and Li Zhenzhenª« (ª©103ªª)

Explanations for the Low Participation Rate in the Formal Credit Market by Rural Households in the ª¥Poor Areas   ª«

.............................Huang Zuhui, Liu Xichuan and Cheng Enjiangª« (ª©116ªª)

Wage Differentials between Public and Nonpublic Sector in China

   ª«¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­.......Yin Zhichao and Gan Liª« (ª©129ªª)

Economic Development, Social Welfare and Governance Structure

¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­.........¡­.Gui Linª« (ª©141ªª)

Housing Characteristics, Property Tax and House Prices

   ¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­...........ª«Kuang Weidaª« (ª©151ªª)

Analysis on the China's Policy Adjustments of Foreign

Trade and the Changes of Export Structure  2006¡ª2008

Pei  Changhong

(The Institute of Finance and Trade Economics in CASS)

Abstract:China's government practiced a packed adjustment policies of exports during recent three years after the reform of RMB exchange regime since July 2005, it was available  to restrain the China export growth speed, and appeared in some changes of export structure. However, these changes resulted in the ¡°price shift¡±, and has paid the costs of going down for export competitive strength and degrade of export structure, therefore, it was impossible to meet the goal of transferring export growth mode. In contrary, the upgrade of China export structure has been supported by the situation of high speed growth of export trade, especially the high speed growth of manufacture processing trade in coastal arrears during the period of the ¡°10th Five Years Plan¡± in China. It was wrong for such argument, which can be helped for transferring export mode only to keep export growth speed decreased, in particularly to retrain manufacture processing export. The government must practice new relief policies to export including exchange rate of RMB in order to resume and build up competitive strength of Chinese export commodity in dealing with the challenge of international financial crisis in the coming days.

Key Words:Foreign Trade Policy£» Export Structure£» Price Shift£» Trade Relief

JEL Classification:F13£¬ F14£¬ F17

Taylor, J.B. 2000. ¡°Low Inflation, Passª²through, and the Pricing Powe

r of Firms¡±, ª«European Economic Reviewª«, 44(7): 1389¡ª1408. ª¥

Xuxin Yu,2007,¡°The Pattern of Exchange Rate Effects on Chinese Prices,1980¡ª2002¡±£¬ª«Review of International Economicsª«,15(4).

ª¥Exchange Rate Passª²through£ºThe Case of China Wang Jinbin and Li Nan

(School of Economics, Renmin University of China)

Abstract:This paper investigates the degree of exchange rate passª²through(ERPT) to import and consumer prices in China with both the ratio of China's imports to GDP and the domestic prices of China's main trade partners are going up. Statistic results argue that the degree of ERPT is less than the degree of marginal cost addª²up of exporters to some extent, and the econometric analyses reach the same conclusion. Besides, the ERPT to import prices is found to be high while the ERPT to CPI is low owing to some factors that obstruct the import prices passª²through channel to domestic CPI. But this situation is changed markedly since August 2005, so the more flexible exchange rate system is needed for China to absorb the price shock from aboard efficiently.

Key Words:Exchange Rate Passª²through; Cost Markª²up; CPI

JEL Classification:F41, F12, E31

(School of Economics, Renmin University of China)

Do Environmental Regulations Influence the

Competitiveness of Pollutionª²intensive products?

Lu Yang

Abstract:According to ¡°Pollution Haven Effect¡±, in order to evade strictly domestic environmental criterions, polluting industries in developed countries will be transferred to developing countries; alternative way is that developed countries increase imports of polluted products instead of producing by their own, both of which is due to the change of comparative advantages. Since 1990s, many scholars pay special attention on whether environmental regulations affect the patternof global trade, but their conclusions are different. This paper, based on the HOV model and 95 and 42 countries' data in 2005, focuses on empirical analysis which shows that: (1) according to the estimation based on the ¡°environmental governance¡± index calculated by CIESIN, environmental regulation does not affect the comparative advantages of five types of pollutionintensive goods; (2) On the other hand, when the per capita income is considered as an endogenous indicator of environmental regulation, which will significantly promote the export of chemical products, iron and steel products and paper products. The appropriate level of regulation can promote a comparative advantage in pollutionª²intensive goods.

Key Words:Environmental Regulation; Pollutionª²intensive Products; Comparative Advantages; Trade Patterns

JEL Classification:F18, C31

Energy Consumption, COª­2 Emission and

Sustainable Development in Chinese Industry

Chen Shiyi

(China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University)

Abstract:To analyze China industrial sustainable development constrained by energy and environment, this paper constructs the input and output panel data of China's 38 subª²industries, estimates their productivity and carries out the greengrowth accounting based on translog production function. This paper concludes that, as a whole, China industry has achieved the transformation from extensive to intensive growth, with the productivity to be the first driving force, that is necessary to sustainable development in the long run. In addition to technical progress, energy and capital have also been driving the industrial growth during the sample period, while labor and emission made less even negative contribution to it. Some heavy industries, however, are still characterized by extensive growth and must improve their energyª²save and emissionª²abate technology to favor the sustainable development of overall Chinese industry.

Key Words:Energy Consumption; Carbon Emission; Productivity; Growth Pattern; Sustainable Development

JEL Classification:D24£¬O47£¬Q25£¬Q32

International Comparative Analysis of the Convergence and Economic

Mechanism of China's Economic Growth and Energy Intensity

Qi Shaozhou£¬ Yun Bo and Li Kai

(Wuhan University)

Abstract:We analyze empirically the convergence of per capita GDP as well as the convergence of energy intensity between China and the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Germany, France, Canada, Italy and Netherland. Our findings are as follows: Firstly, There are two convergences between China and the eight advanced countries, per capita GDP and energy intensity. That is, 1% decrease of the difference of per capita GDP can result in 1ª±55% smaller difference of energy intensity between

 the concerned countries. Secondly, the energy intensity decrease with the improvement economic structure, higher energy price, technology progress and more fixed asset investment and a slight increase, however, with higher FDI. Thirdly, the difference of energy intensity decrease with the narrower difference of fixed asset investment, energy price, technology progress and a slight increase, however, with the smaller difference of FDI. The economic structure, however, can not pass the tª²test in our difference regression. Fourthly, in terms of the concerning countries, the economic mechanism that the decrease of difference of per capita GDP can lead to smaller energy intensity difference is that the difference of determinants of economic growth such as investment, technology progress and price competitive mechanism can impact the difference of energy intensity significantly.

Key Words:Economic Growth;   Energy Intensity;   Convergence

JEL Classification:Q430, R110

Trendª²cycle Decomposition and Stochastic Impact Effect of Chinese GDP

Wang Shaoping and Hu Jin

(School of Economics£¬Huazhong University of Science & Technology)

Abstract:This paper, based on the literature on the trend cycle decomposition, also in accordance with the data feature of Chinese GDP, applies Beveridge and Nelson's decomposition technique to decompose the GDP as the sum of the determinant trend, stochastic trend and business cycle. The decomposition results show there are robust determinant trend and cumulative negative stochastic trend, as well eight cycles in the GDP, in which, the maximum cycle fluctuation is about 0.58%, but the minimum is about -0.37%, and the averaged cycle persistence is 7.3 quarters. The results also show the ninth cycle has begun in 2008. The limiting value of the ratio of the variances is 20%, which implies the stochastic impact, not only brought negative effect to economic growth but also had obvious persistence effect for Chinese economic fluctuation. Therefore, the huge stochastic impact we suffered in 2008 may force Chinese economy go to deeper and more persistent in this new cycle. From this view, China should implement antiª²cycle economic policy of stimulating economic growth against the stochastic impact, to weaken the economic fluctuation.

Key Words:Business Cycle; Beveridgeª²Nelson Decomposition; Trend; Stochastic Impact

JEL Classification:E320£¬C220

Measurement of Technology Spillovers

Shen Kunrong and Li Jian

(School of Economics, Nanjing University)

Abstract:This paper builds an externalityª²based model with physical and R&D capitals, proving a linear property of the R&D function, deriving three measures of spillovers based on the differences between social and private rates of return. China's regional dataset supports a direction of spillovers from local economy to FDI. The estimates of three spillover measures are about 30%, 13% and 23%.

Key Words:Spillovers; R&D Capital; Rate of Return; Measurement

JEL Classification:D620, O330

Family Authority and Familyª²Owned Firm Value:

An Empirical Study in China

He Xiaogang and Lian Yanling

(School of International Business Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract:Family authority is one of the important factors being used to explain the familyowned firm (FOF) value. This paper takes all of the family agents in the family firm as analysis unit. Based on the panel data from Chinese listed FOFs, this paper tests family authority¡¯s contribution and examines the effects of family authority's allocation and authority concentration among family agents on FOF value, including accounting efficiency and marketing value. We find that, first, there exists a nonª²linear relationship between family authority and FOF value, low and high levels of family authority hinder FOF value, whereas moderate levels of family authority will lead to higher levels of family FOF value. Second, family ownership will contribute more to FOF value when management power is controlled by family agents than when it is controlled by nonª²family agents. Finally, if family ownership is concentrated in the hands of a few family agents, FOF value is enhanced; conversely, if family management power is concentrated, FOF efficiency is decreased.

Key Words:Family Authority; Listed Family Firms; Firm Value

JEL Classification:M13£¬M21

Risk Management Options for Health Care in Rural China

Feng Jin and Li Zhenzhen

(School of Economics, Fudan University)

Abstract£ºDisease has been one of the top reasons accounting for impoverishment in rural China. Government subsidizes health care by establishing health care insurance. This paper is an empirical investigation to study the effectiveness of the price subsidies in reducing the financial burden caused by health care in rural China and estimate the fiscal cost of various reimbursement arrangements, using data from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). We find that the reimbursement for inpatient care only has little effect on reducing the financial burden and the incidence of catastrophic expenditure. Expending the subsidy to outpatient care is a more effective policy.

Key Words£º Rural Cooperative Medical System£» Reimbursement Model£» Discrete Choice Model

JEL Classification£ºH51£¬ I18£¬ I38

Explanations for the Low Participation Rate in the Formal

Credit Market by Rural Households in the Poor Areas

Huang Zuhui, Liu Xichuan and Cheng Enjiang

(China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University£»Victoria University)

Abstract£ºUsing a demandª²identified bivariate probit model, this paper attempts to understand the rationale behind the low participation rate in the formal credit market by the rural households in China¬ðs poor area. Response to the questions on the willingness to borrowing from the survey data ensure the dependent variable in demand equation is observable, which results in an improvement of estimation efficiency. We found (1) the low households participation rate in the formal credit market can be attributed to the factors from both the supply and demand sides; (2) The wage incomes have a negative and significant effect on the rural households¬ð demand for formal credit; the ratio of nonª²farm income to total income has a positive and significant effect on the household access to formal credit, though its effect on the demand for credit is insignificant. The latter finding presents a challenge to the argument there is a high demand for formal credit for off farm production and investment in the poor areas of China. Regardless of the changes in the demand for formal credit, to increase the supply of credit alone is not expected to increase the real outreach and improve the welfare of rural households. The paper suggests that measures should be taken to improve the design of loan products so as to increase the real demand for credit.

Key Words£º Rural Household; Formal Credit Market; Bivariate Pro

bit Model

JEL Classification£ºO12, O16, O17

Wage Differentials between Public and Nonpublic Sector in China

Yin Zhichaoª¬1 and Gan Liª¬ª©1&2ªª

(1  Southwestern University of Finance and Economics£»2 Texas A&M University)

Abstract£ºUsing CHNS data and the Heckman sample section model, we find a changing wage differential between the public sector and the nonpublic sector in China. From 1989 to 1997, wages in the public sector are 2ª±90% lower than the wages in the nonª²public sector. However, since 2000, wages in the public sector are 13.48% higher than ones in the nonª²public sector, and the gap is increasing over time. We also find that wages differ even within the public sector: wages in the government are 8ª±22% lower than wages in other jobs in the public sector. Furthermore, the wage returns in education and in experience are higher in the nonª²public sector than in the public sector. These newly found wage patterns are potentially useful in considering income redistribution in China.

Key Words£ºWage Differentials; Public Sector; Nonpublic Sector; Income Distribution

JEL Classification£ºJ310, J450, J710

Economic Development, Social Welfare and Governance StructureGui Lin

(Jiangxi University of Finance & Economics; Renmin University of China)

Abstract: We develop an economic theory of political transitions. Local governments can decide how to allocate resource, so some interest groups may want to capture local governments to acquire the resource, which will increase the inequality of social revenue and bring governments some cost such as unrest. Centre government can regulate the decision behavior of local government through three political institutes, i.e. Appointment, Limited Election and Election to maximize his benefit in different economic environments. Furthermore, governments' choices may not be optimal in some situations. The greater the social income gap and the lower Government valuing private income, the more likely that governments accept accountability from civilians.

Key Words:Political Transitions; Political Institute; Inequality; Capture

JEL Classification:D72, D74, P16

Housing Characteristics, Property Tax and House Prices

Kuang Weida

(School of Business, Renmin University of China)

Abstract:To what extent that the property tax influences the house prices is a controversial issue in real estate market in current China. This article is imbedded in housing characteristics and illustrates the impact of the property tax upon house prices through constructing consumerª²developer model and investor developer model respectively. The theoretical models document that the imposition of the property tax will cause the house price fall ceteris paribus. The paper employs the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1996 through 2006 and conducts the empirical test upon its theoretical models. The empirical outcomes show that the property tax is effectively able to curb the inflated house prices in national and eastern China. However, the effect of property tax upon house prices is insignificant in middle and western China. In addition, the role of interest policy is more important than property tax policy. Accordingly, the policyª²makersshould take the regional disparities into account to implement the policies for interest rate and property tax to control the house prices.

Key Words: Housing Characteristics; Property Tax; Adaptive Expectation; House Prices

JEL Classification:H230£¬L850